Biases and Heuristics

The Muslin Band Meets Reality: the Dept. of Homeland Security Report


The Ol’ Pussy Grabber has had a lot of trouble keeping his campaign promises during his first few weeks in office, which isn’t surprising for a fella who is most influenced by the last thing he can remember on a subject #lastnightinSweden. He’s even had trouble with the Muslin band! Can you believe it? Liberal activist judges have struck down the band on the grounds it is unconstitutional. And all the Sorosite marchers have marched all over it!

muslingoodbadGood thing the Ol’ Pussy Grabber won’t take this without lying! He’ll see the court… in court!!1! Oh yeah, well, I’ll… I’ll… write another Muslin band that you can’t strike down! And, I’ll get my best generals at Homeland security to write me a report saying it is the bestest way to protect the country from evil Muslin!

Only, that didn’t happen either. According to national goddess, Rachel Maddow, the Homeland Security squad doesn’t think banning people based on their nationality is the best way to prevent beach heads of terrorism from forming zitlike on the face of America. And since the Ol’ Pussy Grabber didn’t wanna release a report that contradicted all his best words and the ideas of his best generals and his super secret plan to stop ISIS since he knows more about ISIS than the generals do — does anyone else think he sounds like a five year old arguing on the playground? And we elected this guy, why? Never mind. The generals, the best generals, the best generals we’ve had in years maybe — is the president in charge of minting generals? — went ahead and leaked it to the press. And this time it weren’t to no failing New York Times or lying Washington Post. It were to Rachel Maddow!

The Department of Homeland Security Report

The Ol’ Pussy Grabber is pissed because he ordered that the White House be filled with leaks, but he meant pee hookers! Pee hookers! Doesn’t anyone know what a good leak is any more?

Anywho here’s the Mad Madster her own self to Maddow-splain it to us all!

And one teeny-tiny factoid caught my ear when I heard about the report. It starts with the title:

Most Foreign-born, US-based Violent Extremists Radicalized After Entering Homeland

Hunh. Go figure. Maybe it’s the water? Maybe stop sending those folks to Flint? Seriously, don’t that just take the rag outta the pee hooker’s mouth? Jus’ when you needed some first rate in-telly-gence to cover your back side, those Obama hold over people (‘cuz you can’t be bothered to appoint the 500+ appointees needed to run the executive branch) must be hatin’ on America again and trying to make the Ol’ Pussy Grabber look bad.

I mean that jus’ don’t make no sense no way no how. Everybody knows that the terroringists get into the country whilst seeking asylum. Everybody knows that! Everybody!

Everybody except science! But, before we get to the sciency good stuff, let’s hear a little more from the report:

We assess that most foreign-born, violent extremists radicalized several YEARS after their entry into the United States, limiting the ability of screening and vetting officials to prevent their entry based on national security concerns.

Years after coming here? You don’t say. Now, if the Ol’ Pussy Grabber would say foreign-born, violent extremists, we might could defeat this horrid scourge currently afflicting the country and then we could have nice things again.

Is there some kind of explanation for why it is actually quite reasonable to believe that the horrible terroryists radicalize after coming here as children? Maybe there is some data we could do some sciencey-type stuff to and figger all this stuff out and actually make us all safer.

Biases & Heuristics

When we rely on impressions based on the most easily recalled information we are vulnerable to confirmation bias and to the availability heuristic. We need science to stop these serious but common errors from occurring. Now, as regular rank-and-file garden variety citizens, we can, of course, fall prey to these things, and it prolly wouldn’t hurt no one too much unlessin’ of course we elect a idiot as president who can’t help himself but make the last thing he heard the thing he basis his decisions on. If that happens, then we’re all screwed so good thing that could never happen, right? Right? Hey what’s wrong guys? Why won’t you agree with me? That could never happen. That would be crazy. What do you mean? No, that’s not right. No one would elect that type of idiot. Really? Oh shit. We’re fucked.

Confirmation bias is the logical fallacy of only taking information into consideration that supports your assumptions and beliefs and ignoring evidence that doesn’t. Here’s a picture cuz peoples is visual creatures.

confirmationbias

The availability heuristic is the cognitive tendency to evaluate the probability of something happening based on the most easily accessed memory of that event. So, if there was an event that was especially emotional, that memory will be easily accessed. If there was a recent related event, that memory is more easily accessed.

If you think it is important to make accurate decisions, you should be en garde against these two tendencies. And, our national leaders should be, especially. Unfortunately, they usually are trying to exploit them — radical Islamic terrorism, anyone? In other words, the stooges of the country are easily fooled by creating highly emotional memories that are easily accessed and supporting policy proposals by pointing only to the evidence that supports them and subverting the evidence that does not.

Apparently, according to the Andrea Mitchell, the document says that people don’t come to the country radicalized. The mommy and the daddy don’t come radicalized. The little boys and little girls don’t come radicalized. And, the mommies and daddies don’t become radicalized, but the children do… but only after growing up a bit to the tune of 16 years later!

16 YEARS LATER!!!!1!

The dubious news outlet, The Daily Wire, published a list of terrorist attacks that occurred during Obama’s presidency. If you want a real complete list of violent terrorist attacks in the US dating from the assassination of Lincoln and ending with a shooting in Denver on 31 January 2017, visit the Johnston Archives page, Terrorist attacks and related incidents in the United States.  

Science and Stuff

Anywho, the Deadly Wire, folks, spare us the trouble of digging around for the Islamic-based attacks. Let’s list them all here, and kick this… science-style, y’all!

  1. Abdulhakim Mujahid Muhammad, 23 at the time of his attack. Born in the good ol’ US of A to good ol’ WHITE US of A parents in the good ol’ US of A state of Tennessee.
  2. The well-known AMERICAN born and raised, Major Nidal Malik Hasan, was 39 when he committed his horrific mass shooting, and had a long history of mental health issues.
  3. The infamous brothers, Tamerlan and Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, were brought here as children and radicalized as a young adults, 26 and 23, respectively, at the time of the bombing. Tamerlan seemed to struggle to adjust to life in the States and Dzhokhar was following his big brother’s lead.
  4. Alton Nolen, (30) self-radicalized himself, and then cut off a co-workers head in Oklahoma. He was obsessed with beheading people.  He was 30 at the time of the crime and born and raised up in Oklahoma by god-fearing Oklahomans.
  5. Zale Thompson (32) was also self-radicalized and attacked two police officers with a hatchet. He was 32 at the time of the attack and another born and raised ‘Merican.
  6. Ismaayil Brinsley (32) shot and killed two police officers, but he has a sort of Islamy sounding name and had Islamic postings on his Facebook page, so obviously, terrorist! This shooting happened during the summer of Ferguson and Black Lives Matter, so it is doubles as Obama endangering police lives, too. Apparently, Ismaayil (32) had a long arrest record — arrested over 19 times and tried to commit suicide at least once.
  7. Elton Simpson (30) and Nadir Soofi (34) shot up a Mohammed cartoon drawing contest in Garland, Texas — free speech, even if it is stupid and needlessly provocative and childish! Apparently, Elton Simpson was a good ol’ red blooded American until that devil, Obama, got his radical Kenyan Muslin hooks into him. He was 30 at the time of the shooting. Nadir Soofi (34) was borned to an American mother and a Pakistani father, but after the parents divorced, he and his brother lived with their mother in the US of A. He had a difficult time adjusting to life in the US and had numerous alcohol-related arrests.
  8. Muhammad Youssef Abdulazeez was 24 when he shot up a Chattanooga Marine Recruiting Center killing five but leading to the ludicrous incident in which a responsible gun owning patriot shot the parking lot in an effort to keep the Marine recruiters safe from radical Islamic terrorism — you can’t make this stuff up, can you?  He was a naturalized American citizen after having been borned in Kuwait. But, wait, he had visited Jordan and Kuwait not long before the shooting and came back changed according to his friend. And, he owned guns and liked to shoot them… as a hobby.
  9. Syed Farook (28) and Tashfeen Malik (29) the infamous Bonnie and Clyde shooters in San Bernadino killed 14 and injured 21. She was borned  and in Pakistan, but lived most of her life in Saudi Arabia until returning to Pakistan for uni. He found her through some kind of find-me-a-wife online thing. She originally came to the US on a fiancee visa. Syed was born in CHICAGO! Chicago makes him a borned in the US of A American American! Of particular interest is his history of having grown up in an abusive home. He also “enjoyed” shooting guns alone at shooting ranges. Apparently, they self-radicalized on the internet before meeting, courting, and marrying.
  10. Omar Mateen, 29, shot up the gay night club, Pulse, killing 49 and injuring 53. He was self-radicalized in Florida. You remember him, right? He had a kind of love-hate thing going with being gay: visiting gay night clubs and then freaking out over gay PDA. And, he was American born.
  11. Dahir Ahmed Adan (20) tried to hack people up with a… steak knife? Really?  That’s not terrorism; that’s a cry for help. At a Minnesota mall injuring ten before being shot dead. He was a 20 year old Somali refugee. By accounts and indications, he was well adjusted and assimilated. He was an A student in HS and taking university courses. It would seem that he had self-radicalized himself in Minnesota.
  12. Ahmad Khan Rahami (28) was a naturalized citizen from Afghanistan set off bombs in New York and New Jersey. He managed to injure 30 with one of them. He was 28 at the time of the bombing and had been in the country since 1995 making him seven when he arrived. Significantly, he had traveled to Pakistan in the years before the bombing and married a Pakistani woman. Also, the family has a history of community conflicts surrounding their restaurant and at least one domestic dispute visit by the police.
  13. Abdul Razak Aki Atan (18) was a Somali refugee who attacked people on Ohio State University with a car and a knife injuring eleven.  In the months and days leading up to the attack, he claimed to be excessively worried about what people thought of Muslims, afraid to pray in public on campus for fear of what people would think, and blamed the media for the public perception that Muslims are violent extremists.

duncecapSo, what have we learned here? First, we learned that Barack Obama is a depraved bastard, that deliberately encouraged and probably masqueraded as a couple of ’em, too, 13 different terrorist attacks. Thirteen! He even picked an unwholey number, that’s how you know he is the devil and did it all a’purpose! Dammit, don’t you ding dang dern libels see??!?! It’s all right there in front of you!

Conclusions

  • Fifteen of the 16 terrorists were self-radicalized. They used the internet to learn about being terrorists in the name of ISIS or Al-Qaeda or something.
  • Nine of the 16 terrorists were born and raised in the US of A. Two were refugees from Somalia. Four were naturalized citizens. And one was a visa holder. That’s 16. Of the Muslin band, the two Somali refugees would’ve been prevented from entering and neither of them managed to kill anyone. Scare the heck outa people. Injured a few.
  • What else to do we know? Ten of them clearly self-radicalized on the internet. Four had traveled to either Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, or Chechnya and perhaps became radicalized there. Two seem like they were never radicalized at all.
  • Five were under 25 years of age. Seven were between 26 and 30. And four were older than 30.
  • Ten of them had clear signs of mental illness. And only two seemed to be free of any extenuating circumstances. Of the others, two liked shooting guns.

OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERASo what can we conclude? That most of them, 75% (12 out of 16) were 30 or younger, 62% (10 out of 16) were probably mentally ill, 62% self-radicalized, 13% (2 out of 16) were not radicalized and only happened to be Muslim, 56% (9 out of 16) were born in the US, 25% (4 out of 16) were naturalized citizens, and 13% were refugees. Only two of them would’ve been stopped by the Muslin band.

Lessons Learned

What these results clearly suggest is that (a) we need to reach out to the youth and young adults who are endanger of being radicalized. And, (b) mental health issues desperately need to be addressed in all communities.

Of course all the Ol’ Pussy Grabber’s best generals that we’ve had in a long time because you know they were all handcrafted by the Ol’ Pussy Grabber himself, recommended some alternatives to the Muslin band: work with community groups, religious leaders, and youth to prevent radicalization. Gee, go figure. Using facts and figures to dispassionately analyze a problem and then devise a plan that will address the seeming causes of the problem might work. That just doesn’t make sense to… the stooges that keep electing the likes of the Ol’ Pussy Grabber, Mitch McConnell, and the horrific cadre of Republican governors currently raping and pillaging the country. But, it is painfully obvious to the rest of us.

The United Fucking States of Fucking Stupid

 

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3 replies »

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    Liked by 1 person

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