It’s been widely reported that Trump threatened to bomb Iran’s power stations in 48 hours if Iran didn’t open the Strait of Hormuz. He did that on a Saturday. On Monday, he announced that he had been in negotiations with Iran for the past two days, so he would postpone the new war crime of targeting civilian infrastructure. It wasn’t long after that that news reports surfaced indicating that about $1.5 billion had been traded fifteen minutes prior to the announcement. Whoever was placing those trades made hundreds of millions of dollars.

Who could’ve done such a thing? Hunh. It’s a mystery. No one could predict it. I guess, they were just very lucky. Wow. Some folks have all the luck. Hunh.

The Mystery of Who was Betting on Oil Futures

The Facts of the Case

Let’s get all Sherlock Holmes on this mystery. Between 6:49 AM and 6:51 AM* on Monday 23 March, about 7200 contracts and oil futures that together had a notional value of about $760 million changed hands.. Over on the S&P 500 a similar amount of trading took place at about this time also. Trump made his social media announcement postponing his war crime at about 7:00 AM. (This information was reported on Chris Hayes‘ MSNOW show All In on Tuesday 24 March. It was based on reporting in the Wall Street Journal).

Of course, there is no way to really know just who it was, but that information was only available to a very few people at the White House. Maybe there is a prediction market bet you can place on who the culprit was. Meanwhile, like Sherlock Holmes of the nineteenth century, we can piece together several clues to determine who a likely bettor might be.

The Clues

Our clues fall into two large buckets. First, his isn’t the only time that suspicions about insider trading have been leveled at people in or near this rogue administration. And second, Trump has certain personality traits that make him vulnerable to this kind of temptation. So, let’s put on our deerstalkers, puff our pipes, and polish our magnifying glasses and investigate whether what we know about Trump and whether he’s likely to be one of the culprits behind this brash insider trading.

The Past is Prologue: A Pattern Emerges

You’ll remember that someone made a cool half mil on the smash and grab operation that nabbed Maduro in Venezuela. And, US operations against Iran have proven to be irresistible to some lucky gambler. Someone has won 93% of their wagers about US attacks on Iran, including last June’s attack on their nuclear facility and the beginning of the Netanyahu-Trump Illegal War. This lucky gamblers winnings total about a million dollars. What do they say, once is an accident; twice is a coincidence; but three times is a pattern?

In Trump’s Own Words

Trump being an unproductive malignant narcissist should shed some light on this mystery. His executive dysfunction is playing a big role in this analysis. He cannot plan, organize, or manage his emotions or impulses. Let’s see how his narcissism and executive dysfunction affected his insider trading.

When Trump made the announcement, here’s what he said. See if you can spot the confession (emphasis mine):

All I’m saying is we are in the throes of a real possibility of making a deal. And I think if I were a betting man, I’d bet for it. But again, I’m not guaranteeing anything.

Donald Trump in Trump postpones threatened strikes on Iranian power plants, cites ongoing talks on NPR,

How often has Trump ever talked about betting? He may have, but it probably occurs about as often as it does in my discussions, which is rare. And, we all know that Trump doesn’t do anything without cheating. His narcissism doesn’t tolerate chance because he has to maintain a delusion of perfection. If you take a chance, you risk being wrong. A narcissist is never wrong, so they cheat and lie.

His Executive Dysfunction Contributes

His executive dysfunction doesn’t allow him to edit his words. If he used betting here, it must’ve been primed by something that happened shortly before. That’s the way Trump’s brain works. What ever is top of mind makes its way out of his mouth. If he said betting, you can be sure he had just made a bet or someone talked to him about betting. Coincidence? Maybe, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Trump thinks of himself as the very model of a modern stable genius, but, sadly, all he really is a stupid jenius — his words, his spelling. If movie supervillains haven’t taught us anything, they taught us that there’s no point in being a stupid jenius with cunning plans if no one knows about them. He’s got to tell us so we can admire his smarts.

Like I said, I got no proof that one of the insider traders in the WH is Trump, but he’s telling us in so many words, with his pattern of betting, and his executive dysfunction.

Comment on This: What do You Think?

What do you think, was it Trump who is using insider information to trade stocks and place prediction market bets on US government actions so blatantly? Let me know in the comments.

*In his show, Hayes reported the times as 7:49 AM and 7:51 AM but had earlier stated that Trump made his social media announcement about the postponement at 7:00 AM, leading me to conclude that he misspoke with his times of the trading.

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