We’re nigh on a month since Biden pulled the end run and lateraled to Harris. She hasn’t even had her convention yet. And, she’s still rising in the polls. At this point, you’ve got to start thinking that this is more than a bump or honeymoon. While common sense and conventional wisdom says that we should expect a regression to the mean and the race will tighten, it seems like something fundamental has changed in the race.
I’d love to hear what you have to say about that fundamental shift in the race and the reasons behind it. I know we all have our pet theories. I’d love to hear yours and discuss them all in the comments.
I’ll go first. Here’s what I think is the likeliest explanation: We are all relieved that Trump isn’t likely to win. When Biden was in the race, he was looking old and frail and like he wasn’t going to be able to stand up to the Felonious Authoritarian Rapist Traitor or FART for short, and Old FART for accuracy (Thanks, Sirius).
Trump had worked whatever magic he has on the media and they were being bent to his repugnant will. Instead of shunning him and rejecting him as a viable candidate for office. Hell, the Old FART is still working the refs with how little reporting on #OldFARTSoOld that there is. But, that is a topic for another CoT post.
However, I think it is more than just the possibility that Harris could beat Trump.
- BIDEN’S SELF-LESS ACT. We all recognized how difficult it was for Biden to give up his reelection. It couldn’t’ve been easy to hear from people he knew, respected, and loved that it would be better for the party and the country for him to drop out. As he said, he had a record that should equate to a second term.
- BIDEN’S CONTRIBUTION TO ANOTHER FIRST. Biden is contributing ANOTHER historic first in our march towards a More Perfect Union. He is promoting a very viable run for the first Woman of Color for the presidency. Biden’s contributions to our country are as monumental as any of the giants in our history.
- RELIEF THAT IT ISN’T BIDEN v TRUMP, AGAIN. In our day and age of watching on demand and being spoiled and paralyzed for choice, no one wanted to watch a rerun. As honorable as Biden is and consequential as his term in office was, his time had passed. Trump and the openly fascist MAGA’s time has passed, too. Haley proved prescient when she said, the party that jettisons their 80 year old candidate first, wins.
- HARRIS TIMES HER WAVES. Harris is making like an Olympic gold-metal surfer down in Tahiti and riding her waves to perfection.
- Wave #1: Her gratitude for being there. It is an amazing right-place-right-moment, story. And, she wasn’t shy about letting us know. It showed on her face and in her posture.
- Wave #2: Energy and optimism. She burst out of the gate as if this had been the plan all along. She shines with energy, which is in stark contrast to the Old FART and, frankly, to Biden. It is an energy that our time requires.
- Wave #3: Looking to the future. Her focus and orientation on what comes next and being prepared for it really resonates across the electorate. Trump is still whining about crowd sizes from 2016 and touting the Big Lie. No body gives a fuck, old man. We’ve got climate change to worry about. We’ve got a growing economy that is still in danger of recession to navigate. We’ve got reproductive and health rights to deliver. We’ve got generational debt that needs to be transformed into generational wealth. There are a host of significant problems that we need to solve, and ain’t one of them having to do with the outcome of Election 2020.
The explanation of her rise is the Zeitgeist. Just like Obama encapsulated it in 2008 and Biden in 2020, Harris has caught it with the right message, the right policies and plans, and right it-factor.
I’d love to further this discussion in the comments. Let me hear from all y’all, y’all!
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I’m not sure what to think about it all, Jack. I want to like Kamala but I can’t get over the fact that she doesn’t call for a complete and immediate ceasefire. They could do it if they want to with one phone call. Because of that, I’m really disappointed in her. She is making all the right moves of course, and the fact that she used to be a prosecuting lawyer really helps her speeches pack some punch.
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Howdy Sunra!
I was really disappointed that they didn’t have a Palestinian speaker at the convention. Like you, I understand the political tightrope that they have to walk, but there can be no justification for genocide.
I keep going back to this question: Do you prefer Roe v. Wade America or the post-Dobbs America? That’s our question here, do you prefer some American pressure to end the genocide in Gaza or complete support for genocide? It is not very comforting I know, but in America that is the reality that we have to deal with.
Huzzah!
Jack
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Thanks for filling me in, Jack. I can never see any justification for genocide, ever. Politics is politics and it seems like a game or theatre and I just don’t get it. They need to stop funding it, simple. I couldn’t vote for any candidate that supported it.
Wishing you well!
Sunra
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The question is who do you vote for when one overtly supports genocide (Trump’s finish the job) and one tacitly supports it (Harris’ negotiate a ceasefire now). In America, we have a choice between two, so I keep going back to pre and post Dobbs. When Roe v Wade was the law of the land, it wasn’t perfect, and neither was Clinton as a candidate, but she and the Roe v. Wade America were much much better than Trump and post-Dobbs America. The same is true for the genocide and land grab Israel is perpetrating in Gaza and the West Bank. If you don’t vote for Harris, you’ll end up with Trump and going full genocide. It’s not a great choice, but Harris is clearly better for everyone. It makes my heartache, but I can’t vote any other way or for any other reason.
Sorrow on Sibling!
Jack
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I like that we all have something to work for, and we don’t have to keep pointing out the utter awfulness of the oppo. Politics, campaign work, none of this has been fun (for me, anyway,) for such a long time. While the purpose is still overcoming the nazis, the Harris-Walz campaign is moving us forward, as well.
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Yeah, it’s the difference between running against and running for. Biden gave us something to run for, decency & normalcy in 2020. While that was restorative, it was still looking back to what we once were. Now, that we’re restored, we need a future vision to run towards. It feels like Harris-Walz are giving us that future vision as well as an alternative to Trump.
Blog on Sibling!
Jack
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Aww, thank you! I just hope I’m helping out a little bit. Poor Scottie puts up with me!
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Exactly. Tho I think that Biden went beyond and would have continued to go beyond the tired old Clinton/Obama democratic “lets get along” method, he was clearly in frail health, and that was worrisome. Not to the point of making me not vote, but it seemed to have that effect on others. And it sure looks like Harris will do even better.
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Howdy Willow!
Yes, Biden was showing his age, but the Constitution provides for a recourse should a president die or become disabled in office. I’m just glad the situation is over, we got the best resolution to it, and are moving forward. Ironically, Biden had to lead the #BidenSoOld folks to the resolution. They had no plan beyond drop out. It was a ridiculous thing.
The timing of it all couldn’t have been better, too. While Biden probably hadn’t planned the timing too far in advance, when he decided to withdraw and throw it Harris, he probably deliberately timed the announcement to blunt any bounce Trump was going to get from his convention and his assassination-adjacent incident. Again, a brilliant move.
And, now he’s milking the #ThankYouJoe martyrdom status for all its worth to help get Harris elected.
It shows a level of acumen and ego management that few of us have, especially anyone who had achieved the presidency.
Huzzah!
Jack
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Every little bit helps. As Michelle Obama said, do something, and you are.
Jack
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Americans are favoring Harris because they do not want the United States to be taken over by neo-Nazi types of authoritarians like in some of the third world countries….and from the looks of things, that is exactly what might happen if you know who gets elected….He has even bragged about it.
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Howdy John!
Maybe non-MAGA Americans finally are believing who Trump is as he tells us.
Blog on Sibling!
Jack
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I guess that is what happened to the German Population back in the Hitler days…they got so wore down by the lies, they started believing them. It IS an effective tactic.
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One starts thinking “They’re all liars in the end.”
Having the corporate media “both sides-ing” everything makes it even harder to believe anyone is truthful.
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I like your perspective. Please share them more often.
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Howdy Willow!
You’re exactly right! The problem of bothsidesing and the reason why Republicans have pursued it so vigorously. Every Republican president since Nixon has had their administration mired by scandal and deserved to be impeached. The Dems have largely been scandal free and other than the “I did not have sex with that woman” meh-impeachment of Clinton, have been honest, corruption, and crime free. The difference is incredible.
By promoting the lies, all politicians lie, all politicians are self-serving, they are giving themselves cover for their own criminal corrupt behavior. Bothsidesing is in itself a lie.
Huzzah!
Jack
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I think Americans were craving the right leader. Biden was that person, except- his clearly frail health, along with a decades-long media hate-fest against him and his children seemed to depress voters.
It kind of looks like Kamala “had greatness thrust upon her”. But she’s well prepared. She’ll do well, especially if she mostly sticks with Biden’s appointees when she’s President. I hop.
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Howdy K!
I think Harris has used her time as VP wisely. I think she’s prepared for this day. She thought it was going to be in 2028, but she’s been preparing. Honestly, she seemed weak in 2020, and her first year as VP was shaky (not entirely on her, she was put in some bad spots with a 50-50 Senate tie and trying to solve the push of Central American immigration as it all shifted under her feet).
The other thing that strikes me is that if Biden had said at any point in his presidency that he wouldn’t seek re-election, not only would Trump and the Republicans have had time to develop an effective smear campaign against her, the Dems would’ve had a competitive slug-fest of a primary. By doing it this way — I’m not suggesting any of this was planned — it saved us from all of that. You know every silver lining has a dark center, I’m just saying Biden’s withdrawal from the race is the dark center of Harris’s halo.
You know her team has also learned from Biden’s team as well. She’ll have her pick from Obama and Biden vets as well as other ambitious types in the Democratic Party. She enjoys the unbridled and unrestrained support of the entire party, unlike Trump who surrounds himself with backstabbing in-fighting sycophants.
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Jack
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We have to remember that Harris was already running as the presumptive (to the frustration of the MSM who wanted a big fight to report on) VP nominee. But, it wasn’t obvious, overshadowed but the hand wringing about Biden and Trumpian triumphalism. So, when Biden stepped aside, she was ready to come out the gate fast and hard, and take over the news cycle, even from the GOP convention and the bandaged ear. And, she has kept it. Trump is suffering severely from spotlight deprivation. [His rally in Asheville this past week was held in a small venue seating only 2500, not the main hall of the facility.]
Much of the country, maybe even the world, was in the, “Oh, damn, not a rerun of 2020. We want a new show.”, mood, even outright bored. Now, we are Not Going Back to that old story about two old men.
The narrative of Trump inevitability was broken. Now, the future is up for grabs and nothing is inevitable. That’s exciting.
Also, setting Walz against Vance, a real Midwestern Regular Guy who didn’t leave to go suck up to Coastal Billionaires, against one who did that, is brilliant. And, for all the view of that part of the country as conservative, the history of the Prairie Progressive strain in that politics is long.
Multiple groups of people who were not feeling heard or seen are now feeling the at least the possibility, and some the reality of being heard and seen.
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Howdy Bob!
I can’t help but think that Biden’s decision to withdraw from the race was timed for maximum bluntage of Trump’s momentum and possible bounce out of the convention and assassination attempt, and Harris’ spectacular jump into the race was, too. Biden-Trump was about the past. It was 2020 all over again. Trump is mired in the past. He’s at the developmental stage in which he is taking stock of his life, focused on the past. He’s focused on past grievances. He longs for the idealized nostalgiasized past where his father was a titan and bailed him out of his every fuck up. Trump is nothing but past.
Harris stepped onto the stage and was all about the future and possibility, which is America’s story. It is refreshing and hopeful and relieving.
You have to think that the race will tighten, but you know, I don’t think it will. I think Trump is not bouncing back from that narcissistic collapse. I don’t think there’s a Trump whisperer this time around. Ivanka and Hope Hicks were the people who could reach him in the past, and both have long since moved on. Ivanka took the money and abandoned ship. Can’t blame her there.
I think Trump has simply run out of gas.
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Jack
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I honestly believe it will go down in history as the greatest political rope-a-dope move in history, and there is no way that Biden wasn’t aware of that; he’s been engaged in political infighting his entire adult life.
The comms team for Harris-Walz is phenomenal , and at last we have a campaign free of the tone-police shackles of “when they go low, we go high” who aren’t afraid to call them weird, creepy and most importantly liars.
Finally, her approach to ignoring the Beltway media in favor of reaching out to people is driving them crazy. They believe that they should be the gatekeepers of what ‘the people’ should know, but after 8 years of biased coverage against Democrats, and mainstreaming Trumps lies, racist and authoritarian rhetoric as “just Trump being Trump, oh well, what can we do about it? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯” their poutrage is wearing thin.
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Yep, Pres. Biden knows how to do politics.
I second all this.
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I can’t wait for the first night of the DNC with the overwhelming love and gratitude that will be pouring out for all that Biden has done for our country. The Maryland rally really was emotional, it is going to be a tidal wave Monday.
Jack
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Howdy Bruce!
Harris and her team are playing the social media game well. I’m really enjoying their snarky press releases about Trump’s whatever that is he’s doing over there where he rambles incoherently and lies. That is gold right there.
Apparently Biden had put together a strong ground game in the battleground and toss up states and Trump hasn’t unless you count the county election certification boards as ground game.
You know a couple of things going forward: (1) There will be an “October surprise” akin to the James Comey but her emails announcement. And (2) there will be an attempt to steal the election similar to what they did in 2020 dragging us all the way to Inauguration Day. We may not know what any of those things will look like, but we know they’re coming.
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Jack
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There will be the firing and blaming of the scapegoats, and there are those close enough and wise enough to break away when they see the collapse coming. Either way, the court of the mad king is hollowed out but for the sycophants, the deluded, and the vultures. Nemisis, she who punishes Hubris, can be such a patient huntress.
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Howdy Bob!
Right now it is bringing on the proven asset, or at least ass, Corey Lewandowski. Later it will the campaign shake up. I don’t know anyone on the Trump team is wise enough to see the collapse coming much less break away. I fully expect and hope for complete disfunction in the Trump campaign.
Blog on Sibling!
Jack
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To a great extent, it doesn’t matter who is trying to manage the campaign because Trump won’t/can’t change his behavior or take and apply advice. He himself is the core cause of the dysfunction and they are stuck with him.
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Trump himself is saying it, too. He says he’s angry and just doesn’t want to follow the advice he’s being given. He’s asking his rally attendees to approve of his grievance and anger. That’s a co-dependent relationship.
Jack
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Indeed, a classic example, and if his crowds continue to shrink, we will see how he presents in withdrawal. Unless we already are.
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I suspect, we’ve got a lot more cray-cray to get through before Trump comes close to resuming equilibrium. He probably never will.
Jack
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It does seem to be getting worse. He says that tariffs are paid by the foreign countries, sea level rise will create more beach front property, and now, that Harris met with Putin just before the invasion. Even Fox “News” fact checked him on that last one. He is about two clicks short of “War is Peace.”, Day is Night and so on. He looks, and is beginning to sound weary and even depressed, especially when he is deliberately set up in small venues with small crowds.
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