SUMMARY: If you’ve ever wondered how so many “never Trumpers” are now saying they’ll support Trump in 2024, then this blog post is for you. Affective polarization has profound influence on voter behavior. It explains the discrepancies between polling data on social issues and actual voting patterns; hating the other side overrides policy considerations. Affective polarization has had a long history of being fomented by conservatives in the US. It explains their use of divisive hateful rhetoric over actual policy proposals and why the rank and vile vote against their own best interest. Affective polarization suggests that there is the potential for a third-party appeal in future elections. It also emphasizes the urgency of fostering a coalition to counteract the divisive impact of affective polarization and safeguard the democratic process.
KEY WORDS: Affective polarization, Voter behavior, Political division, Third party candidates, No Labels, Democratic values, Voting patterns, Democracy
COMMENTS QUESTIONS: Can you imagine a scenario in which you would vote for a Republican candidate? Do you think that there will be Biden 2020 voters switching to Trump in 2024?
Jen Psaki interviewed New Hampshire’s governor, Chris Sununu, on her show on Monday 22 January, the eve of the primary. He endorsed Nikki Haley last month, but he has stated that he would support I2I4 if he’s the nominee. There are so many rank and vile supporters of the other Trojan Horse candidates who will support and vote for Trump. Elected Republicans have fallen in line behind Trump’s candidacy.
The reasoning he uses to support the impeached, indicted, rapist, aspiring dictator is that they are both Republicans. If insurrection, swearing vengeance against all enemies, especially domestic, and being ineffective as a candidate and office holder isn’t enough to make someone give up their seat at the fascist table of the Republican Party, what is? Or we could twist that question around, why keep your seat at the fascist table of American politics? Why vote Republican? Why will millions of people vote for I2I4?
Influence of Affective Polarization on Voter Behavior
It’s for the same reasons that people tell pollsters one thing and then vote for candidates that will do the opposite: affective polarization.
It isn’t the issues. It isn’t the candidates. It is our affect, our emotions. Our emotions are polarized. Our views of the issues and solutions are, in fact, similar, but we cannot bring ourselves to vote for a candidate of the other party no matter what even if their party candidate is facing likely conviction on 91 indictments, has been found liable for sexual assault, led an insurrection against our government, vows to use our justice system and Executive Branch to get vengeance on those who have wronged him, is increasingly addled and making less sense with every uttered word, and is a chronic liar.
Don’t believe me? Think that sounds far fetched? Then try this quick thought experiment: Under what circumstances could you see yourself voting for a Republican? I can’t see any. I believe all Republican Party members are anti-democratic fascists. My affect is polarized against Republicans. I cannot and will not vote for them. And, it is the reason Chris Sununu and many others will “hold their noses” and vote for Trump. Let me know, in the comments, how this thought experiment came out for you.
The Inside Skinny on Affective Polarization
Affective polarization means that the voter dislikes the other party more than they like their own. It is a hate driven motive. It is why Trump and the MAGA Republicans promote hate and division over actual verifiable articulated policies. There are a couple of important points to be aware of here:
First, affective polarization predates Trump and MAGA. It really began with conservative talk radio in the 1980’s. I remember my mother’s views changes when she started spouting Rush Limbaugh’s half-truths and outright lies. It only got worse from there. The evil triumvirate of Ronnie Rayguns, Rush Limpburger, and Newt Testicles kicked off our current golden age of divisive hate oriented politics.
Second, affective politics correlates with age. It mainly affects those 65 and older. In other words, it isn’t because of social media. It is because of Fox News, other conservative cable news outlets, and talk radio. Retirees sit at home and listen to this shit all day long.
And third, it has done outsized harm to our country compared to European democracies. We have about the same levels of affective polarization, but our democracy is hanging on by a thread with the sword of Damocles poised to cut us loose while European democracies remain relatively strong and stable. Go figure. We’re number one and America is leading the way again, and god’s chosen, and all of that crap.
One of the implications of affective polarizations is that straight-ticket voting becomes a thing. Even people who identify as independent usually vote for one party over the other. The number of crossover votes is very limited even though there were 2020 Biden-2016 Trump voters. That’s a good question, by the way, will there be 2016 Trump-2020-Biden-2024 Trump voters? Let me know what you think in the comments!
Affective Polarization Drives Appeal of Third Party Candidates
This suggests that there is a real opportunity for a third more moderate conservative party in the 2024 election if one could get organized and get some backing by a billionaire financier or two. Anti-Trump fascists won’t vote for Biden, but they would vote for a No Labels candidate. Moderate Democrats who think Biden is too liberal — could anyone imagine that sentence ever being written five years ago? — could be tempted by a No Labels ticket.
There is a coalition of the center that could be built in this circumstance. The only question is who such a coalition would hurt more.
The solution is to convince the Democratic base, the Call-Me-Maybe voters, and newly registered voters that the only way to preserve our constitutional republic is voting Democratic. Not just for Biden, but up and down the ticket. We have to recognize the anti-democratic fascist racist misogyny of the Republican Party and reject it wholesale at the ballot box. We cannot be distracted by the warmed over racist misogyny that a centrist No Labels candidate would be touting. We cannot be turned off by the one policy that Biden promoted that we don’t favor. Given the affective polarization of the the average Republican Party rank and vile base member, it won’t be easy, though. It may take a village to raise a child, but it will take a country to save a democracy.
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Image Attribution
This image was generated using Poe’s StableDiffusionXL bot using the prompt, A person voting while scowling at another voter
The Psy of Life 
I have a quibble. I don’t know if it has any importance, but I feel (!) it is important to avoid amplifying the bs at every opportunity. “those who have wronged him…” really needs a disclaimer, even if it is simply quotes around “wronged”.
Imagine Ted Bundy wanting vengeance against that woman who wronged him by getting away as a comparison.
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That quibble may be a good one.
Affective polarization does change the way that you go about trying to expand your coalition. Appealing to people who hate you more than themselves is very tricky. It is the root of the pwn the libs phenomenon among MAGA.
Thanks for pointing it out. I’ll incorporate it in similar future posts.
Huzzah!
Jack
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Because, it’s , next to impossible for us, to, separate our feelings toward one candidate or the other, we allow our emotions to, drive us to vote a, certain, way, overlooking, what’s, factual, like the, proposed, policies, and, we allow our, personal liking or disliking of a candidate, to, override our choosing of that, most fitting, person who best, benefit our, countries as a, whole. To separate our feelings in voting is, next to, impossible, unless, you’re, completely, compartamenalized, which, not many of us, are. And, what it worlds down to in the, elections are always the choices between the lesser of, two, evils, and, unfortunately, in theses cases, we still, force ourselves to, vote for, a, bad, candidate, and, we keep on, hypnotizing ourselves, that, we had, voted for one, that we, don’t hate the, most…
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Howdy Taurus!
We are emotional decision makers and use our rational minds to justify our emotional decisions. All of our decisions are based on a knee jerk like-dislike reaction to whatever choices we are faced with. It take enormous cognitive effort to override the power of initially liking or disliking a choice.
Another human constant is that those with power and money will always find a way to influence the decision makers in government in their favor. The only system that has ever circumvented this reality is democracy, and its golden age was 1931 – 1981 in the US. That is from FDR’s election to Ronald Reagan’s when corporate taxes ranged up to 90% and the American economy was driven by middle class consumer spending. The demand side of supply and demand instead of the supply side that Reagan ushered in. Biden has successfully jiggered the US economy to so that it leans more to the demand side and we’re seeing the results of that now with a soft landing from the possible recession, falling inflation, rising employment rates, and increasing middle class income.
We should not assume that all politicians are bad and self-serving. The Democratic presidents since FDR have all been good people who have done more to help the average American and world than hurt. That is not to say that they’ve all been saints, but on the whole they have delivered for average person.
The choice between Biden and Trump is not the lesser of two evils. The choice between Democrats and Republicans is not the lesser of two evils. Again, Biden and the Democrats are not wholly good, but their good “deeds” far outweigh their evil ones.
Huzzah!
Jack
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Could I vote for a Republican? What would it take? Nope, I can’t think of a circumstance or a candidate who could get me to do that. The last Republican I’ve seen that I could trust as president (but wouldn’t have voted for if I’d been old enough) was Eisenhower.
As for a third party candidate, I think one could have a chance of attracting enough voters to change the outcome between the major two parties in an election, but for a third party to displace one of them, it would have to be a real party, not just an astroturf attempt to siphon voters from one or the other side. Real parties take years to build.
And, as for No Labels, follow the money – nuff said.
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Howdy Bob!
That was the Ross Perot phenomenon, wasn’t it. He or his followers attempted to build a third party, but it fizzled faster than his mental health did. There was something bizarrely misfiring in that man’s noggin. It isn’t to say that it can’t be done, and No Labels is as close as we’ve come since Perot and the Bull Moose Party. With billionaire backing and a successful high profile candidate or two, it could supplant the Republican Party. In fact, it is likely to.
The Republican Party is fixing to implode. Without Trump, what do they have? Trump is 77 years old and in clear decline. Transitions of this magnitude are always very rough rides, but it is clear that replacing the Republican Party is the next step in the evolution of our democracy, if our democracy is to survive.
Like fossil fuel companies should have started investing in renewable energy fifty years ago, moderate Republicans should be joining together to form a new centrist political party.
Huzzah!
Jack
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