It’s been a couple of days since Trump was “shot” (more on that in a minute), and the conspiracy theories and disinformation is flying. Tempers are hot and blood is, literally, in the figurative water. As the media struggle to keep the Felonious Rapist Traitor a viable candidate because that is all that the horse race media has been trying to do since 2016, and rumor and story abound on social media, we should try to remember some of the facts and their implications.
Let’s start with the motivations of the shooter. There are three prevalent theories:
Black Flag Operation
First, is the Black Flag shooting organized by Trump and associates.
Let me stop laughing long enough to actually address this. Really. You gotta give me a minute… Okay, a couple more… Jeez, I hope I don’t give myself a heart attack or anything.
Remember, the Felonious Rapist Traitor couldn’t get himself to the Capitol Building in order to pull his coup off. He opted instead to watch the whole thing on the TV in the WH kitchen. Remember, he lost an entire carrier battle group, literally.
Using the words Trump and organized in the same sentence just shouldn’t be done.
Like the 6 January Insurrection, the Traitor left it all to someone else to plan and execute. Their big mistake was relying on him to get himself to the Capitol Building to “lead” the charge so Maddog Greene could shoot Nancy Pelosi on the floor of the Representative’s Chamber. Okay, all that is blatant speculation on my part, but the point is Trump never organizes anything.
If Trump didn’t organize a Black Flag “assassination” attempt, then who might’ve? Someone on his campaign? At the RNC? The Russian disinformation ops?
If there was someone who was going to be able to pull something like this off, it would have to be the Russians. There is no one in Trump’s orbit who is capable. I feel pretty strongly about that.
Everything I know about sniping and assassinations I learned from TV shows like Burn Notice, and that expertise tells me that it is possible to try to shoot someone with a short-barreled AR-15 at the distance the shooter was from Trump. According to a website calling itself, Tactical Shooting, the effective range of the AR-15 with a 10.5″ barrel and a 55 grain bullet has the best effective range up to 250 yards. According to CNN, the shooter was 400 – 500 feet from Trump. Hunh? We gotta convert yards to feet? No body said there’d be math involved. Luckily, I’m barefoot, so I can confidently say that 250 yards is equal to 750 feet, or that the gun was capable of making the shot. Thank you, Michael Weston.
CONCLUSION: Burn Notice and shows like it assure us that assassins do not like to use long-range attacks because too much can go wrong. There are too many elements involved. That said, it coulda been a Black Flag operation. Someone coulda taken the shot with some confidence that they could miss Trump… or maybe it just didn’t matter to the organizer of the operation whether the miserable lying toad lived or not.
Joe Biden Put a Hit on Trump
Okay, it was only that creep, Rep Mike Collins (R-#GOPDystopia), who said within minutes of the reported “shot” that it was Joe Biden who put a hit out on Trump.
We all know that isn’t true, but it hasn’t stopped anyone from calling on Democrats to stop calling Trump and MAGA anti-democratic fascists because that rhetoric is overheated. Here’s the problem with all of the MAGA Republican reasoning about the entire Trump assassination imbroglio.
Trump is guilty. Republican reasoning is that if it happened to Trump, it should happen to Biden:
- Trump was impeached by Democrats; Republicans should impeach Biden.
- Trump was investigated, indicted, and convicted of felony state and federal charges; Republicans should investigate, indict, and convict Biden.
- Trump was “assassinated;” Republicans should “assassinate” Biden.
The problem is that Trump did do enough to warrant being charged with high crimes and misdemeanors as outlined in the Constitution and warrant being impeached and have SEVEN Republican senators vote to convict him. That’s a first. They said it couldn’t be done. Clinton couldn’t do it. Big strong men came up to him afterward with tears in their eyes saying, “Sir! Sir! How did you do it? No one has ever had members of their own party vote to impeach and convict them like you have!” Trump is the best president at being impeached and convicted! Be best.
Trump was found guilty by a jury of his peers, except in that one case where his lawyers screwed up — you get what you don’t pay for, amirite? — and didn’t request a jury trial and he was judged by a judge instead, so there’s that. Either way, the state and federal independent judicial systems investigated, indicted, and convicted him of real crimes. We’ve put people to death based on the same standard.
Why they think turn-about is fair play when Biden hasn’t turned around, I don’t know, but that is MAGA reasoning.
CONCLUSION: Biden and the Dems had nothing to do with this. Everything that you hear about it somehow being their fault is just a lie meant to keep the Felonious Rapist Traitor a viable candidate.
Troubled Young Man with a Gun
According to the BBC, this Thomas Matthew Crooks, age 20, was a gun enthusiast who could not qualify for Bethel Park High School varsity rifle team — high schools have rifle teams now? WTF? We’re training the folks who will turn around and shoot up our schools and our children now? — or junior varsity team. After failing to qualify, he quit trying.
He was a quiet loner who may or may not have been bullied. He was good at math, history, and government. He worked in the kitchen of a nursing home after graduating high school. His father may have bought the weapon he used six months ago.
This is what all that tells me. This is an obsessive young man with self-esteem issues. Perhaps he has executive functioning issues, too. There’s not enough information to judge exactly. But, here’s what I imagine really happened.
Young Thomas Matthew Crooks six months to a year ago has the same thought we all have had at some point, what if somebody took a shot at Trump. And, he couldn’t drop it, just like he knew “everything” about government and history or at least what they taught in school.
A few months or weeks ago, he hears about Trump coming to Butler to speak, swings by the farm where it will happen and thinks, “Wow! So many lines of sight for a shooter to use.”
He then begins to think more and more about how a person would go about shooting Trump at that rally.
He goes by the rally site several more times and convinces himself that it would be possible to gain access to one of the roofs of one of the buildings and line up a shot. He almost can’t believe it could work.
At some point he’s building bombs — the BBC article alludes to bombs, but doesn’t come right out and say it. That speaks to a half-assed plan, “Maybe I could use a bomb… maybe?”
He shows up to the rally site on the day of and carries his rifle to the building. Several witness report seeing him and reporting him to police, who, amazingly, do nothing about it. And, he takes his shot because now he has to, right?
Comment on This: What was Thomas Matthew Crooks’ Motivation for Shooting Trump?
What do you think? Did I miss a possible motivation or scenario? Which one do you think is right? Is there evidence out there that I’m not aware of? Let me know what you think, in the comments.
Image Attribution
The image was taken from the Fox News story, PHOTO GALLERY: Assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump




Fits the mass shooter profile but … usually mass shooters are all about the numbers. This kid may have been looking for a more John Wilkes Booth notoriety, or that kid that shot Reagan (who I am told is alive and quite comfortable). A qualitative v quantitative equation
He’s famous …
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Yeah, or he could’ve just wanted to shoot up a large gathering of people and the secret service got him before he could kill more. Trump was injured by shrapnel from the teleprompter. He may not have been shooting at Trump at all.
Huzzah!
Jack
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Welp. the link about the carrier didn’t work for me, but I did find this:
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2017/04/where-is-the-uss-carl-vinson-the-military-chain-of-command-under-trump-is-dangerously-broken.html
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Thanks for the tip and the link. That was the incident that I was referring to. Who knew we’d be looking back with such warm nostalgia for those halcyon days of yore when the worst thing the Felonious Rapist-Traitor could do was lose a carrier battle group? Man, those were the days, weren’t they? When we could make fun of the Ol’ Pussy Grabber for being such a disorganized shit. Now, we can barely make fun of him for lying about getting shot in the ear and saying it was either luck or god that saved his life. He’ll let you know which in two weeks.
And, the link in the post works now.
Huzzah!
Jack
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I am sceptical about this “assassination” attempt something is not quite right here! What caused the cut to Trump’s ear? I seriously doubt it was a bullet. Until we get more information, type of gun, calibre and angle of trajectory I’ll hold off further comment.
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Howdy Jon!
One of the first reports I read about the shooting was that one of the teleprompter screens was hit. Speculation then was that it was a shard of screen that got him. We’re told by the FBI and others that it was an AR-15 style rifle, but we rarely find out the caliber or anything else about the ammunition used.
Unless you’re clued into some obscure database somewhere, I doubt we’ll get much information about wind speed and direction or angle of trajectory beyond what has been reported in the popular media. The BBC article I linked to did a pretty good job of piecing together video shot by participants from different spots around the venue and matching them to time and events, like the seriously wounded spectator that was pulled out of the stands behind and to Trump’s left, which was where the shooter was shooting.
Let me know if you find out anything else.
Huzzah!
Jack
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I’m sure people will be speculating about the shooter’s motivations for a long time. Nothing has been found, so far at least, that indicates what motivation he may have had. It appears that unlike a lot of malcontents he hasn’t left any real trail of alarming writings or posts on social media.
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Howdy Grouchy!
I hate to say it, but I feel pretty right about this one. I think the kid was in the school-mass shooter end of the spectrum and Trump just provided a surprisingly convenient target.
If so, his lack of social media ranting on his favorite pet peeves was because it all happened so quickly for him.
Huzzah!
Jack
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while I find it amusing to hear all the lovely conspiracy theories from the blatherers at our local news stations, that poor boy needed a therapist badly and no one got him any help. Pretty sure the Cheeto can’t think logically enough to hire someone, the RNC, while probably fantasizing about an assassination attempt and how greatly it would assist their stupid polls don’t have the balls to pull it off….Poor Mr Biden is too damned NICE to even think about it, The DNC can’t stop arguing if Mr Biden is too old or not to stop and think about how to find an assassin….that leaves ONE logical conclusion. That poor deluded kid. But that news won’t sell papers or p[ay for advertising sponsors.
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Howdy Suze!
That was my conclusion. The only conceivable actor capable of organizing an assassination and trying to pull it off is Russia. They’ve certainly assassinated enough people and tried to assassinate a few more recently.
Otherwise, I’m pretty sure he falls into the mass shooter category of murder and mayhem, and Trump, as usual, provided a surprisingly convenient target to be used for their needs that also helped him with his.
You’re right about the boy needing therapy, but that is on the parents and the school, isn’t it?
Huzzah!
Jack
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Money, which he’ll never spend, since he was oh so conveniently shot.
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Howdy Silver!
I’m sure he was paid in rubles. If he was paid at all, that is.
Huzzah!
Jack
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As of this morning, the FBI are coming up pretty much empty on any clear clue to the motive and decision process. The report is that they are working on getting into his phone for his communications and movements. The part about his not making the HS rifle team might be significant, pointing to a personal motive of proving himself as a marksman.
A well planned and executed Black (False) Flag operation would be different. The long range shot is unlikely as too risky unless the shooter would be a much more experienced sniper and better armed. Somebody up close and armed being stopped would, I thin, be more likely, allowing the “target” to show face to face defiance, maybe even being able to punch the bad guy. Boy, wouldn’t Trump love that!
One of my initial speculations about the then unidentified shooter and a motive was that he might be a combat veteran and experienced sniper enraged by Trump’s disrespect for his dead and wounded comrades in arms past and present. That would have had a whole different range of political effects. As a veteran myself, I can easily imagine such a shooter, perhaps one feeling betrayed by Trump’s surrender to the Taliban in Afghanistan.
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Howdy Bob!
Trump would certainly have loved to play the tough guy and punched the dude in the meet and greet, but he doesn’t do that, does he? He’s a germaphobe, so he doesn’t shake hands with the little people. As it was, if it were a Black Flag operation, I’m sure it was pig’s blood from exploded little bags near his ear. I don’t think they would’ve actually shot live rounds at Trump, unless, again, they didn’t care whether he actually was killed or badly wounded or not.
There are many troubling parts to this. The spectators that reported him on the roof to police who ignored it. The fact that he got several shots off before the counter-sniper team could neutralize him.
Before I found out he was a 20 year old kid, I had thought of the angry vet scenario, too. Looking at his high school picture and how young he was, just broke my heart. There’s no reason for this to have happened other than we’ve got way too many guns in the country and no one actually takes our lip service to being open to mental health needs seriously.
Huzzah!
Jack
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That young man looks more and more like the typical school shooter with every detail we learn that I since school is out for the Summer, the rally would be a target of opportunity to do Something Big. I have yet to hear a clear, second by second timeline from when he was first noticed to the return fire. One report apparently says he got up to the roof quite quickly and began firing immediately. Anyway, the FBI have now reportedly gotten into his phone. Maybe they will learn what tipped this kid over to the action.
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Yeah. We’re all playing second guessing here. But, another possibility occurs to me: He wasn’t interested in Trump at all. He was trying to be a mass shooter and hit people in the crowd when he hit the teleprompter. The teleprompter shattered and injured Trump. It doesn’t seem likely. Why not shoot up a movie theater or something if all you want is a body count. Maybe you want the fame and glory of shooting up a Trump rally.
From what I know of him, it seems like impulse control and obsessiveness.
NBC News published this earlier today:
“The suspicious person, later identified as Thomas Crooks, 20, was first flagged to local police officers by rallygoers on their way into the event. The attendees reported they saw Crooks pacing and behaving strangely near the magnetometers, four officials told NBC News.
“Local police officers began pursuing Crooks on foot, the officials said. During the pursuit, the U.S. official said, local police told the Secret Service they were looking for a suspicious person near the event.”
So, I guess the local police lost him in the crowd?
“It is not clear what time the Secret Service was notified and whether it was before Trump took the stage on the grounds of the Butler Farm Show, a venue roughly 36 miles north of Pittsburgh. The U.S. official said the Secret Service was told of a suspicious person before local police discovered Crooks on the roof of a nearby glass research company’s building. That discovery occurred shortly before Crooks opened fire, according to two law enforcement sources.”
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/-police-warned-secret-service-suspicious-person-trump-rally-shooting-rcna161933
If there is nothing about hating Trump and wanting kill a lot people for vengeance for wrongs and slights against him, then the failure as a marksman at the rifle range seems like a very likely culprit for pushing him to target Trump when he ended up close by.
Huzzah!
Jack
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Yes, another feature of the reporting on him from coworkers and former classmates has another common theme with mass shooters, that nobody had a clue he might do something like that, but in an odd way, surprised, but maybe not entirely.
One thing I have not heard is how many shots he got off. Given how fast an AR-15 can be shot if someone is not taking careful aim between, any number of 5 or less means they hit him very quickly once he started. The feature of not taking careful aim is another mass shooter trait.
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Howdy Bob!
This is all really interesting to me. The teleprompter screens are all close to the speaker because reading. But the angle is wonky for a shooter on higher ground. The teleprompter screen lis lower than eye level for the speaker, so a bullet that would strike the teleprompter would have a trajectory in the torso range of the speaker. One of the spectators who was shot was behind Trump in the stands. All this makes it a wash. Was the kid aiming for Trump and his rifle team right, he’s just a bad shot or was he just shooting into the crowd? Also, by the time he had opened fire, according to the BBC, a local officer had poked his head over the side of the building and was scared away by him pointing his gun at him. All of his shots were rushed.
It is hard to think that he went to the rally to do anything other than shoot Trump, but it is possible. If he was just a mass shooter, though, he probably would’ve had some indication of the anger and violence necessary to do such a thing. Maybe that will come out during the course of the investigation.
I note that Trump isn’t talking about his injury and sports a large bandage over his entire ear. I’m sure that’s because he was merely scratched and not injured by a bullet at all.
To me it all adds up an impulsive shooter who was likely targeting Trump to prove a point about his marksmanship. But, we shall see.
Huzzah!
Jack
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One thing is sure. The kid did not go out of his way to explain what he was going to do. That’s another common feature of school shooters, that they do not leave manifestos, but political shooters do.
Apparently, a big bandage on one ear is not a fashion statement at the RNC convention.
On the other side of the isle, I’m getting the feeling/suspicion that the “dump Biden” effort is about more than Biden, especially now that pressure is on to cancel the virtual roll call and take it to the convention. I suspect that the challenge is to the party leadership. If so, what is not coming out is the by whom and in what direction. Although the Ohio legislature, in their kindness and spirit of fair play, have fixed the filing deadline problem, but some Democrats who still want the virtual roll call view that “fix” with suspicion, and, I think, rightly so.
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Howdy Bob!
The person who cuts down the last tree in the Amazon Rainforest will have a good reason for doing so. The people dividing the Democratic Party in one of the most crucial elections for our democracy’s survival, I’m sure have good reasons, too, none of which, I’ll say tongue firmly planted in cheek, are spelled R-U-B-L-E-S.
It defies all reason that you’d pick the eve of the nominating convention to challenge the incumbent of your party. When your opponent is busy shooting themselves in the gonads, you shut up and enjoy the show. If it means a floor fight at the Democratic convention, I’m sure the Ohio Republican Party was only too happy to oblige.
The aptly named Crooks was an impulsive person, I’m quite certain. This was as impulsive of a shooting as you can get at a Secret Service-protected political rally. There was a perfect storm of failure to allow him to get as close as he did to actually shooting Trump rather than just shooting at him.
I’m surprised that there has been no lamenting the magnometers preventing good guys with guns from stopping the shooting since so many citizens figured it out long before the police did.
Huzzah!
Jack
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Oh, somebody will think of that about the magnometers. I had another thought about the shooter. Some claims (not fact checked so far as I know) are showing up that his father was a Trump donor and politically active. I wonder, as seems likely if that is true, if the parents were at the rally and intended target, or meant to witness.
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Howdy Bob!
Well, if his father was an active Trump supporter, it could also explain his donation to the Act Blue a few years ago. If his father is a gun enthusiast and gave him grief over not even making the junior varsity rifle squad (I still can’t get over the idea that we’re training school shooters now), then it could be he’s showing his dad something.
Given the lack of warning signs, it being very personal becomes a distinct possibility. That he may have wanted his father to witness his triumph, just adds to it. Although, I think if his father had been there, that would’ve been prominently reported by now.
Huzzah!
Jack
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The family has been notably quiet, which is not surprising. Even if his dad was not there, showing him the triumph by way of the news would work too.
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I agree with that assessment. This looks more like the kid was trying to prove something to his detractors, father, classmates, whoever, and less like he was making a political statement. If it were political, racial, misogynistic or any of those things, he would’ve been leaving evidence of that. If it were personal between him and his father and rifle team, then he wouldn’t.
Jack
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The finding that he was searching on line about Major Depressive Disorder is telling as well.
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And also a little depressing. The kid knew his mental health was poor and was trying to help himself, and, literally, no one else noticed. So, that makes his death very likely suicide by mass shooting. As we learned from the Atlanta spa serial shooting, there is a thin line separating murder and suicide.
Huzzah!
Jack
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I’ve long seen the majority of mass shootings as variations on Suicide By Cop, although there are those who do themselves before they can be captured. We are probably lucky that high explosives require a bit more technical knowledge than just pointing a gun and pulling the trigger, or we’d have more suicide bombers.
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Crooks had two explosives with him. I don’t know if they worked or not. He obviously hadn’t tried to use them. Supposedly, he flew a drone over the venue.
Whatever he was doing, it obviously wasn’t well planned or executed.
Huzzah!
Jack
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Good executive functioning is not a symptom of Major Depression, and, he was only 20, still an adolescent developmentally. We may learn more of his relationship with his father, but probably no soon.
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Howdy Bob!
Unfortunately, you can be depressed and have poor executive functioning simultaneously. They are independent. Although, depression can interfere with some executive functions.
Your point about his youth is well taken. In many ways, he is the poster child for our mental health crisis: symptoms ignored by everyone who should know better (parents and school officials) while tremendous, but treatable, needs go unmet, and he lives in unnecessary misery.
We cannot in anyway support what he did, but I have tremendous empathy and sympathy for him. He was just a kid. Somebody should’ve been taking better care of him.
Also, a very strong argument for preventing the free and unfettered access to guns. The country we’ve developed is mad, completely and utterly mad. It operates with little or no executive functioning and is utterly impulsive and id-driven.
Huzzah!
Jack
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One of the most chilling mental health statistics I have ever encountered was that for people with no known history of mental illness or suicidal thinking, the time from first thought to action is less than 10 minutes, and shorter for children (<18). And attempts with guns are 90+% lethal. I don’t know stats on how many suicides by gun include harm to others, but it is frequent in domestic violence situations particularly. If this were to continue for enough generations, maybe we would evolve out of it.
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Howdy Bob!
That’s the problem with guns. They act faster and with more lethality than evolution does. Or rather, they favor the rash and impulsive over the problem-solvers. In someways, it is de-evolution, going against the hunter-gatherer imperative of developing cooperative groups that eliminated the impulsive rage murderers among us. I doubt anyone other than some social scientist in their university office somewhere is trying to keep statistics on murder-suicides as a category.
I just opened the news this morning, and Biden is out. I’m just stunned even though I anticipated it. I thought it would be today, yesterday.
Huzzah!
Jack
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There are just a huge number of people in this country who have guns and shouldn’t. That is unlikely to change until the civilization collapses and the ammo runs out.
It had to be soon if it was going to be. Now, the DNC needs to get the virtual roll call done and make the Ohio deadline. At this point, nobody sane could really want to take the job away from Kamala, unless there really has been a donor level conspiracy to secretly get somebody ready with organization and funding to appear as the magic White Man.
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Howdy Bob!
Luckily, the reports are that donations are pouring in for Harris. So, maybe she’ll have so much momentum that no big dollar donor could possibly buy another candidate. What we need now is unity. Hopefully, everyone, including the ultra-wealthy who are accustomed to buying whatever they want or need, including politicians, will unite behind her.
Huzzah!
Jack
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The support is there. On NPR this morning there was an interview about the fate of the Biden/Harris Campaign money. Litigation is likely. https://www.npr.org/2024/07/22/nx-s1-5048037/biden-dropped-his-reelection-plans-what-happens-to-his-campaign-war-chest
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That’s where I saw the headline! Okay, when there’s a 100 million dollars involved — although Harris raised over a 100 million since the announcement — I guess it pulls the ignoble out of some people.
Jack
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Well, Mike Johnson did say the GOP will litigate anything and everything litigatable to hurt the Democrats. And even trivial and hopeless suits can be used to slow things down and distract, as DJT and his lawyers have been proving for many years.
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Hopefully being such twerps will turn more voters against them.
Jack
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With luck, they will ruin more lawyers the way they have poor old Rudy. At some point many people can get over admiring the cleverness of dirty tricks. sore losers, and cheats, and revert to values of fair play and graceful losers.
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Howdy Bob!
While there are conflicting reports on whether he was bullied or not, most agree that he was quiet and easily forgotten. He seems a bit nerdy with a penchant for math, history, and government. I’m reminded of the South American Indian comment on concerning the calm cool collected Werner Herzog and the raging Klaus Kinski, “It’s the quiet ones that you have to watch out for.” And, they said I’d never use my German New Age Film class. They laughed when I signed up for it. Ha! Who’s laughing now?
I believe he got off a minimum of four shots. One that injured Trump via the teleprompter. Two that grievously injured two spectators. And one that killed the volunteer fire chief. Again, it’s a wash. If he was gunning for Trump, you’d expect fewer shots as he took time to line up the next one. The secret service got in their relatively quickly so he may have just turned his gun on the crowd until the counter-sniper team got him.
Huzzah!
Jack
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I think that’s right. There was mention early on about a water glass as the source of the shrapnel, but that really is a difference without a difference.
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The close up of the ear in the aftermath of the shooting tells the story. There is no real damage. I’m sure when Trump sprays on his tan and fixes his comb over, he will add penciling in the “scar” from the shooting to his morning routine.
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Me might have it tattooed on.
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If he weren’t such a weinie.
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LOL
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Then there’s this report from the BBC?
https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/cd1egn7z4gno
Huzzah!
Jack
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Since I don’t watch TV news, I had not seen the building or it’s orientation to the venue. I was picturing the shooter having a head on shot at Trump, but no, he was shooting from the side. Very possibly, with that crowd (including Secret Service) around Trump, he may not have had a good aiming point on the man. That speaks more to the mass shooter way of thinking.
I was also thinking about the pressure on the counter sniper teams. Sniper teams are usually a team of two, the spotter with the binoculars, and the shooter with the rifle and scope. We have had military snipers prosecuted for war crimes for shooting non-combatants. For the Secret Service, the stakes are higher. If you get the bad guy, you’re a hero, but if you make a mistake and take out an innocent civilian, you are a murdering thug, and the political opponents of your Commander In Chief will make the most of that. In a head on view from a distance, it can be quite hard to tell whether someone is holding a gun or a camera, until you see the muzzle flash and hear the pop.
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Howdy Bob!
It looked like a good angle to me. It was a clear shot to him. He may not have adequately accounted for the teleprompter, though.
Right now, the MAGA Republicans are making the most out of the lack of security to press their Biden is the enemy rhetoric.
Huzzah!
Jack
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Yes, if they have not yet claimed that that roof was left unguarded on purpose, they soon will. Everybody, multiple House and Senate committees, is planning hearings, the standard video clip opportunity for grand standing.
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At the same time, this is an event that Congress should investigate and such hearings would result in useful reforms in times less divided than ours. Now, it will be used to score political points with the folks at home and little more.
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Exactly
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