Election 2024: MAGA Republicans Sour the National Milk to Overcome Status Quo Bias

Behavioral Economics and the Subconscious Struggle with Change

Status quo bias bias refers to our inclination to maintain the current state of affairs, leading to a reluctance to embrace change. This bias is in line with findings in behavioral economics, which suggest that individuals are averse to taking risks unless it is to avoid a certain loss. Departing from familiar routines or practices is often perceived as risky, evoking discomfort in individuals. Regardless of the context, the existing status quo is perceived as a safety net that has ensured survival, even in challenging circumstances. Initiating change, regardless of the nature of the change, is viewed as jeopardizing the one stable element that has sustained one’s well-being. Consequently, the fear of losing this stability often outweighs the potential benefits of change.

This subconscious struggle occurs whenever we contemplate making a significant change.

Status Quo Bias Explains the Incumbent Advantage

In politics, it explains the incumbent advantage, shedding light on the formidable challenge faced by contenders such as Mondale, Dole, Kerry, and Romney in their bids for the presidency. Despite identifiable weaknesses in each of the incumbents they ran against, they all still faced long odds. Defeating an incumbent requires a compelling rationale for change, just ask Poppy “It’s the economy, stupid” Bush about that… um, if you’re holding a seance, that is. Let me know what he says, if you do!

The One Weird Trick to Beating Status Quo Bias

The trick to beating the status quo bias is making the status quo look like a sure loss, thus making the change seem like the better option. We’ve had a front row seat, not to a hanging as Senator Hyde (R-Lynching) would’ve liked, but to Republican efforts to make it seem as if the government is not or cannot work. Let’s site some examples:

Immigration

There has been lots of loud and whinging criticism of Biden and the Democrats for having an open boarder, but when it comes to time to put their legislation where their mouth is, all they can do is stick their heads up each others asses like ostriches trying to hide from voter dissatisfaction. This attitude is best expressed by Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Assholes) when he famously remarked, Let me tell you, I’m not willing to do too damn much right now to help a Democrat and to help Joe Biden’s approval rating. I will not help the Democrats try to improve this man’s dismal approval ratings. I’m not going to do it. Why would I? And, of course, that legislation never passed.

They impeached the Secretary of Homeland Security, Alejandro Mayorkas. Of course, the GOP can’t do anything without shooting five or a dozen of their own members in the genitals, so it took two tries to get it done. And, they did all on trumped up charges that somehow Mayorkas is to blame for the push of the horrific conditions in other countries and the pull of the shining city on a hill.

It is all part and parcel of a general strategy to achieve these goals:

• RACIST FEAR MONGERING. They need to scare white people into thinking that they are going to be replaced or at least out voted by asylum seekers who are just lazy takers coming here to live off of the fruits of their hard labor that the Democrats are only too happy to give them just to buy their votes.
• SOWING CONFUSION. They have to keep the border and immigration as chaotic as possible so that no one can easily understand what is really happening. All they have to do is point and scream like Courtney Cox about the horrors, the HORRORS! happening on the border as the unwashed diseased terrorists flood across coming to do unspeakable harm to America because they hate our freedoms.
• PARALYZING THE FEDERAL RESPONSE. If they can actually stop the federal government from cogently implementing a policy by, I dunno, refusing to do anything other than sign short short short-term continuing resolutions to keep the government funded for a month or two at best and tie up departmental resources responding to their myriad long-term “investigations,” then they can say see? See? SEE?

Economy & inflation

Republicans are doing everything they can to distract from Biden’s economic achievements and focus on the few problems in the economy, like inflation. In the simplistic analysis that the GOP offers, inflation is bad and Biden is to blame, which, of course, no president is wholly responsible for inflation.

Because today is more important than the future and the past, voters pay attention to what is happening right now. Americans feel like their personal financial situation is either fine or better, but they believe that many people somewhere are struggling financially.

With the strong biases in economic perception polls, MAGA can maintain the false belief that the economy is performing poorly or much worse under Biden than it actually is. The truth is, using most metrics, the Biden economy is doing remarkably well.

One of the greatest achievements of Ronald Reagan was to bake the idea that Republicans were good at the economy and Democrats were bad at it into the American psyche. Trump and today’s GOP benefit greatly from this assumption. While the economy under Trump did well, it was a largely untroubled time in American history until #COVID19 came along, and then Trump showed is utter incompetence to manage anything other than grift.

Economic concerns remain the most important issue in the election, surpassing the next highest issue, immigration, by more than twice as much. Congressional Republicans are doing all they can to mire the economy in confusion and doom and gloom by dicking around with continuing resolutions and repeatedly pushing the government to the brink of shutdown.

Our current funding expires in September 2024, two months before the election. You know we’re going to be doing this dance all over again. The lack of predictability in government funding keeps the country, especially business, on tender hooks.

Roiling with partisan conflict

As long as MAGA can keep us roiling with partisan conflict over a myriad of social issues like abortion, book bannings and burnings, white privilege, fear of liberal protesters, and when all else fails, xenophobia, gun rights, and crime, they can paint the government as being ineffective.

It sets the stage for looking at the current mess in that Republicans have created in Washington and want to change it. The Republicans are gambling that the change will be in the White House and that the favorable senate election will shift the senate majority. Unfortunately, or fortunately, depending on how you look at it, it may mean that the House flips to the Dems in spite of gerrymandering and voter suppression and nullification efforts.

Status quo bias makes incumbency hard to beat. The only way to do it, according to behavioral economics, is to make the incumbent appear to be a failure by making the social milieu seem chaotic, muddled, and hopeless. By driving up negative perceptions of immigration, the economy, and social issues, the prospects of changing office holders, especially in the White House, seems like the better choice.

Image Attribution

This image was generated using Poe’s StableDiffusionXL bot using the prompt, A ship changing course because of a storm on the horizon