We just had three more primaries: Maryland, Nebraska, and West Virginia.

Did you know? I’m not sure that voters in the states that had the primaries even knew. Since the presidential primaries for both parties were over before they started, there hasn’t been much interest in any of the primaries except amongst the political class and the bothsides political press trying to flog the dead horse race into a dead heat for fun and profit.

The only thing that seems even remotely interesting to report about is the Nikki Haley zombie campaign and Trump protest vote. The bothsides press has tried to tout the Biden protest vote, but given the results of these three elections, that seems to have subsided. Don’t mention the West Virginia vote. You’re talking about the state that elected Joe Manchin to two terms in the Senate.

Here’s the only real insight that you need to take away from these primaries:

MARYLAND:

  • Trump: 80%
  • Haley: 20%

NEBRASKA:

  • Trump: 79.6%
  • Haley: 17.8%

WEST VIRGINIA:

  • Trump: 88.4%
  • Haley: 9.4%

Why is this so important? Because the people who took the trouble to turn out and vote for Haley in a meaningless state primary in May, will turn out to vote against him when it matters.

One way to predict who will win an election is by looking at whose voters are motivated to go to the polls. Because we make it so difficult to vote, and that’s without all of the GOP’s recent state voter suppression and nullification legislation, it takes motivation to vote.

Protests Boost Voter Turnout

How Protests Can Swing Elections | Stanford Graduate School of Business

Four years ago, Ye Olde Blogge posted about how the size and enthusiasm of protests influenced turn out and voting in elections. It turns out there’s a positive correlation between going to a protest and voting. When you think about it, it makes sense.

You go to a protest because you’re enthusiastic about an issue, you want your voice heard, you’ve put effort into the issue by protesting, and you’ve met a lot of other people who feel the same way. It all adds up to making much more likely that you’ll follow through months and even years later to vote on that issue.

The same reasoning can be applied to Haley’s zombie voters. If they didn’t feel strongly about making their opposition to Trump heard, they wouldn’t be out there voting. Because they put that effort into it once, they’re likely to do it again. They are committed. They are enthusiastic.

You read the reporting that these folks can’t quite bring themselves to say that they’ll vote Biden over Trump, so we’ll have to see how they vote in November.

That’s wrong.

They may not vote for Biden in November, but as we learned in 2016, unless you’re voted for the loser (Clinton), you helped Trump win. Voting for Jill Stein or any of the other third party candidates, took your vote away from Clinton. Staying home, took your vote away from Clinton. Even if these protest voters don’t vote for Biden, they ain’t voting for Trump, and in a two-person race, that’s all that matters.

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