Correct me if I’m wrong, especially if you have any evidence to the contrary, but we can predict Trump’s support in 2024 by using his support in 2016 and 2020.
We can confidently predict that Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential voting base will consist primarily of individuals who supported him in both the 2016 and 2020 elections. I base this assumption on a clear pattern observed in recent election cycles.
The trick Trump pulled in 2016 was that he brought new never-voted-before and seldom-voted-before voters to the polls. That’s how he won.
In 2020, a different phenomenon played out. There are three categories of voters in 2020:
- People who voted in 2016 and also voted in 2020.
- People who didn’t vote in 2016 but voted in 2020.
- People who voted in 2016 but didn’t vote in 2020. This category doesn’t matter very much.
The 2020 election had the largest percentage of eligible voters voting in a century. 2016 was considered a high water mark, 2020 was a century flood. So, that second category, those who didn’t vote in 2016 but voted in 2020 was the difference maker. That category broke hard for Biden.
We can analyze the Trump vote specifically:
- People who voted for Trump in 2016 and voted for him again in 2020.
- People who didn’t vote for Trump in 2016 but voted for him in 2020. The only people who fit this category are the people who didn’t turn out in 2016. And, it was not a very big number.
- People who voted for Trump in 2016 but didn’t vote for him in 2020. There are a surprisingly large number of people in this category.
While the number of Trump voters grew from 2016 to 2020, it didn’t grow as much as the Democratic voters from 2016 to 2020.
Using the past as prologue, we can categorize the voters in the 2024 election and predict the turnout.
- People who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020, will likely turn out in 2024 and vote for Trump a third time. The number of people in this category is surprisingly stable. This is Trump’s infamous ceiling-floor number.
- People who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 but will not vote for him in 2024. This category splits into two distinct groups:
- People who just won’t participate in 2024 after having voted in the previous two elections. This number will be larger than what the pundits and pollsters expect.
- People who voted for Trump twice but won’t a third time. This number will be larger than what the pundits and pollsters expect.
- People who voted for Trump in 2016 but not for him in 2020 and won’t vote for him in 2024. This is a substantial portion of the electorate.
- People who voted for Trump in 2016 but not for him in 2020 but will vote for him in 2024. This is a logical permutation that doesn’t actually exist in nature. No one will fit this voting pattern.
- People who didn’t vote for Trump in 2016 but did in subsequent election. This is another logical permutation that doesn’t actually exist in nature.
No one goes from not having voted for another candidate to voting for Trump in a national election. No one. Doesn’t exist. No one looks at the four years under Trump and thinks, “Hunh, while I didn’t vote for it at the time, it kinda makes sense now.” The horse-piss media, pollsters, and pundits all want us to think this might could happen and Jebus be ascert of it. But, no.
Therefore, the only votes Trump is likely to receive in 2024 will come from those who have demonstrated a consistent commitment to him by voting in his favor in both 2016 and 2020. Any potential growth in his support will have to come from those who simply didn’t participate in the prior two elections, rather than voters flipping from opposing him to supporting him.
And, if you weren’t moved by the electoral politics to vote in 2020, you ain’t going to be moved to vote in 2024 whether you support Trump or not.
There’s a lot of possibilities to discuss here. But any way you slice it, Trump isn’t growing his vote. Pick one and comment on it.
The Psy of Life 
There is one group left out, the new potential voters, those who were too young to vote in 2020. The pundits and pollsters have been trying hard to predict their numbers and who they will vote for or against, if they do vote. I suspect that they may be the least represented group in the polls because they don’t have land line phones, and, being young, can be more volatile in their opinions. They may also be more likely to give answers intended to mess with the pollsters’ heads. Are there enough of them inclined in any particular direction to decide the election? My guess is not.
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The youth vote is fickle. It cannot be relied upon. It generally breaks left. The savvier ones will recognize the work that Biden has done to improve climate and other world issues that generally appeal to the liberal youth. Hopefully, that will make a difference.
Jack
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We hope so.
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I was out on Saturday (on the back of a Harley) & at a busy intersection just under 2 miles from my house, there were about 6-8 people with Trump flags, a Gladsden flag & several American flags. So maybe the GOP doesn’t have to do any advertising, the cult will do it all themselves.
I admit that as we drove by, I stood up on the foot rests & yelled “FUCK YOU FUCK YOU FUCK YOU” while giving them the finger with both hands. Not exactly what my mother taught me about being a lady but …
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Your country thanks you. You’ve expressed how we all feel.
I like picturing you on the back of a Harley. It just seems right.
Trump has successfully nullified his court cases. Now that he’s lost a case, it will go through appeal, but no one cares any more. The damage is done and whatever boost has been received. The fact that no one or about as many protesters as you flipped off ever showed up at any of his court venues is all the evidence you need of MAGA just not be energized by this election.
However, Trump was relying on his trials for free publicity like he got in 2016 for his rallies. He’s not getting the free publicity with his wild statements like he used to, either. And, he’s draining the coffers of the RNC and his own campaign and PACs to pay his legal and other bills.
Unless they can steal this election more artfully than they did the 2016 one and more successfully than the 2020 one, they ain’t winning in November.
Huzzah!
Jack
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I believe you have a valid point there. The GOP might as well not bother doing advertising at all in this election because it isn’t going to make a damned bit of difference as far as their voters are concerned. On the democratic side it’s going to be a bit more difficult. It’s going to depend entirely on whether the dems can get people to get off their asses and go to the polls and vote. There are, alas, a significant number of alleged democrats and “independents” who are irritated by Biden’s position on Israel, or feel he is too old, or whatever, and may possibly vote for a third party or not vote at all to “protest”. I’m convinced that’s what happened with Clinton. She lost because a significant number of people who might have voted her refrained from voting entirely because they couldn’t stand her.
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Howdy Grouchy!
I think you’re absolutely right about the reasons Clinton lost, but the difference between Election 2016 and Election 2024 is vast and huge. In 2016, the vast majority of the blinkering public didn’t think Trump could win. They didn’t think it matter who they voted for or whether they voted because Trump couldn’t and wouldn’t win. Now, we know different.
In terms of Election 2016, I can’t believe that Trump won fair and square. He’s never won anything fair and square. There was no risk so small that he was not willing to rig it in his favor. Why would Election 2016 be any different?
And, that is the big fear that lingers from 2016. We haven’t taken the threat to the integrity of our elections seriously enough to secure them. In 2020, Trump’s and the GOP’s election rigging was overwhelmed by the sheer number of people voting who ended up voting Democratic. The question is will that trick work again?
Huzzah!
Jack
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This! Winning elections is a matter of adding votes; trumps entire campaign this time is the equivalent of a tired old ‘One Hit Wonder’ band playing their greatest hits at county fairs for the last 4 years.
His core base are now like the Deadheads (the DeadInsideHeads?), traveling from rally to rally to see their idol, like the ones who went to that ‘Black’ church, where there were nothing but white people in the audience and out-of-state plates in the parking lot.
He’s bragging about how some guy in the front row has seen “200 shows, er ‘rallies'” He’s getting attention for shit like ‘maybe we should have a separate migrant UFC league’ and ‘I’ll replace all income taxes with tariffs that GYYYYNAAA will pay for!’ which get all the soundbites, but who, exactly is the target for this nonsense that isn’t already in his base?
The Political Knowers tried to hype a poll a while back showing how the less often people voted, the more likely they were to support trump, and the people polled who hadn’t voted in 2016, 2018, 2020, and (not ‘or’!) 2022 were like 63% in favor of trump. So they’ll keep up their record of not voting again this year?
This generated the usual panic among the usual Democratic Chicken Little crowd.
He won by a fluke in 2016, and has lost ever since, because he relentlessly attacks anyone not in his base.
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Howdy Bruce!
I think you’re right there. The Republican approach to election is to make it harder to vote, especially for anyone who is unlikely to vote for them. They are trying to fight a war of attrition. They are laying siege to our democracy and relying on siege engines and attrition, not soldiers and pitched battles to win the day. As long as Democrats can continue adding voters faster than they’re losing them, then they’ll win.
I think the fundamental error that Democrats are making is the threat that the Republican voter oppression and nullification efforts and the effects of the Russian-Chinese-Iranian-GOP disinformation campaign will have in 2024.
Huzzah!
Jack
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If they are over 50 I would say yes there are set in stone….but news has it that Hispanics trust Trump more on immigration and that could swing votes. chuq
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Howdy Chuq!
Shifts in the electorate have happened, but those can happen independent of how people voted in elections past. I don’t think there are Clinton-Biden Hispanic or Black voters from 2016 and 2020 now switching to Trump. Percentage gains for Trump are from people who are new to voting for him.
2020 was a watershed year for our democracy. If you weren’t motivated to vote in 2020, you aren’t ever going to be motivated to vote. There isn’t a conservative social issue big enough to drive more new voters to the polls. In fact, making it all into a fun game of piss off the liberals is probably going to suppress the conservative vote because you get the benefit of playing by going to Trump rallies, making outrageous statements to whoever will listen, making anonymous threats on social media, and all of that without enduring any of the hassles of voting in person that the Republicans have created to stop likely Democratic voters from voting in person.
I think the “popular” view of the election as advanced by the horse-race-for-profit media, the for-profit, self-aggrandizing, self-appointed expert pundits, and the for-profit pollsters is fundamentally flawed. They’re relying on motivated reasoning to reach their conclusions, which is, we conclude we need to drive clicks, likes, and shares in order to remain profitable.
Huzzah!
Jack
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I agree about 2020 vote…..I expect a low turnout….but then it is early to say for certain. chuq
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Regression to the mean. Turnout in presidential election years have averaged around 60% since W. 2020 reached 66%. It would be surprising for 2024 to top that. More than likely it will fall back to 60% again, which means new voter turn out isn’t going to happen. It will be the people who usually vote. No one’s flipping Biden-to-Trump.
Huzzah!
Jack
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I agree…Hispanic voters do not trust Biden on immigration….do not know if that would make a difference but it is something to think about. chuq
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Howdy Chuq!
Conservative politics and Hispanic culture are a natural match. If the GOP hadn’t worked so hard over the past forty years to completely alienate the group, they would have the majority support of the two largest demographic groups in the country. What does that tell you?
Huzzah!
Jack
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Tells me the GOP is not the big tent they claim. chuq
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They also don’t care about winning elections or democracy.
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So sad but true. chuq
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