SUMMARY: As the 2024 election approaches, state-level polling reveals a chaotic and unpredictable political landscape. In Arizona, tight presidential and Senate races suggest a split electorate, while North Carolina’s gubernatorial contest highlights the stark contrasts between candidates. With shifting voter demographics, including increased registrations among younger voters and women, the challenges for pollsters are mounting. Factors like Trump fatigue, abortion rights, and voter suppression efforts complicate predictions. Ultimately, the ability to accurately gauge the electorate’s mood may determine the outcome, making each vote crucial in this dynamic environment.
KEY WORDS: Election 2024, Polling, Arizona, North Carolina, Kamala Harris, Trump, Ruben Gallego, Kari Lake, Josh Stein, Mark Robinson, Ticket Splitting
COMMENT: How do you account for the widespread support for statewide Democratic candidates and the tight presidential candidate in the swing states?
I keep looking at state level polling and the results seem to me an ass scratcher, and, man, are my fingers stinking!
We’ve grown to rely on polls and take great comfort in even the slightest leads among our favored candidates, but if recent polling is to be believed, it seems like the electorate has lost its damned mind. There are wildly differing levels of support for statewide candidates and the presidential candidates in some of the swing states that seem to defy all reason.
We’re going to look at two of the more egregious states, Arizona and North Carolina. We’ll use Politico’s break down swing state presidential polls and FiveThirtyEight’s analysis of key senate polls and their polling data on North Carolina’s gubernatorial race.
Election 2024: Arizona
The Arizona Presidential Polling
Politico reports these polling averages for the state:
- FiveThirtyEight average: Trump +0.5 (On Sept. 10: Trump +1)
- RealClearPolitics average: Trump +1.6 (On Sept. 10: Trump +1.5)
- Silver Bulletin average: Trump +0.7 (On Sept. 10: Trump +1.9)
- 2020 result: Biden +0.3
I remember when the Democrats won nearly all the statewide elections in 2022. It felt like a strong repudiation of MAGA, even though most victories came by the thinnest of whiskers. The polling results for 2024 make it sound like 2020 all over again. It’s either candidate’s election to win or lose, and just a few votes would tip it one way or the other.
If the presidential race is this close, then the Senate race must be, too, right?
Arizona Senate Race
The race between Democrat, Ruben Gallego, and Republican, Krai-Krai Lake, shows a much less competitive race. In FiveThirtyEight’s latest polling average, Gallego leads by 6.6%, a trend that’s held since August.
Lake is a female Trump: She still hasn’t conceded her loss in 2022, and she says stupid crazy shit all the time. She was a TV news anchor; he anchored his own reality TV show. They’re so similar, it’s spooky. Are we sure we’ve seen them together?
Arizona Ticket Splitting?
What explains the vast difference in the polling for the two races? Could it be there are Arizonans saying, “I’ll vote for the Old FART, but not Krai-Krai? That’s a bridge too far!” Seriously? That’s what’s happening here?
Or is it that they are that far apart on the issues? Is there some local issue that Lake is known for that alienates Trump voters? Has she proclaimed the Arizona Republican State Party platform to be whatever she says it is rather than what Trump says it is? Is she proclaiming Project 2025 to have been handed down from the burning bush on Mt. Horeb?
Or is it people looking at Gallego saying, “Yeppers, I’ll vote for him! He’s a good ‘un, but Harris? That pinko commie socialist fascist? No way.” What? Could that be it?
Gallego has a seven point lead because Lake is to cray-cray to vote for, but Trump is okay? Or Harris is too radical to vote for, but Gallego is okay?
Neither thing makes sense to me. I figure, one of the sets of polling is way off. Either Gallego doesn’t have the lead we think he does and that race is just as close as Harris-Trump or vice versa.
Election 2024: North Carolina
The punditing pundits are practically stabbing each other in their proverbial backs so they can be the first to breathlessly declare that North Carolina is in play for the first time since Obama took it in 2008.
North Carolina Presidential Polling
The big news is that Harris has pulled even with Trump. Politico reports the polling averages:
- FiveThirtyEight average: Trump +0.1 (On Sept. 10: Tied)
- RealClearPolitics average: Trump +0.1 (On Sept. 10: Trump +0.1)
- Silver Bulletin average: Trump +0.1 (On Sept. 10: Harris +0.1)
- 2020 result: Trump +1.3
There hasn’t been much change in the past few weeks and the Old FART seems to have lost ground since 2020. In a race that will be decided by thousands if not hundreds of votes, any bit of lost ground could very well mean a lost election.
North Carolina’s Stinking Turd of Gubernatorial Candidate
The other race that is making all kinds of news is the gubernatorial race between Democrat, Josh Stein, and Republican, Mark Robinson, particularly since fifteen-year-old postings Robinson made on porn site message boards have surfaced.
Even before these comments surfaced, Robinson was trailing his Democratic opponent significantly, with FiveThirtyEight reporting a difference between eight and fourteen percent during the month of September.
With Robinson polling as low as 33% in early September, even MAGA Republicans think he’s a bit overboard and unsuited for office. The MAGA rank and vile finds him worse than Maddog Greene, Boobert, and Andy “Buggy” Biggs. I didn’t think that was possible, but it is, and it is just as unlikely as Stein leading Robinson by fourteen points.
Deciphering the Polling Difference
In Arizona, it seems to be a clear case of ticket splitting, but the dynamics in North Carolina seem to be a lot more personal. This may not be so much a case of ticket splitting as it is about the governor’s office having a much bigger and more direct impact on personal lives than the president or even their representatives.
The loopy antics that MAGA has come to know and love from Trump might be just too much when North Carolinians consider the need for a governor who can effectively protect them from the potential harms of a second Trump term. They need someone who can fight for federal supplies of personal protective equipment, secure federal assistance based on the electoral share Trump received in the state, and find funding for farmers who were driven to bankruptcy by Trump’s tariffs.
Apparently, there are North Carolinians out there saying, “Black jobs,” Okay fine. “She recently turned Black,” Whatever. “If I lose the Jews will be to blame,” I guess. “Where are my Blacks?” Oh yeah, that guy’s there AGAIN! “We’ll lock up all of my critics,” Got that right. “Give me a billion dollars, and we’ll drill drill drill!” Drill, baby, drill! “I’m a Black Nazi!” Now, wait just a cotton picking minute here! That guy’s out! We can’t be associating with that kind of trash.
What could possibly differentiate the two candidates when both are peddling the same racist, antisemitic, misogynist garbage, conspiracy theories, and disinformation?
Could it be that one is white trash and the other is Black? Could it be that there really are North Carolinian MAGA types voting for Stein for governor and Trump because reasons? Or voting for Trump and just skipping the governor’s race?
Stein being ten points ahead of Robinson and Trump one tenth of a point ahead of Harris just doesn’t seem possible! Presumably, all of Stein’s supporters also support Harris, all of Robinson’s supporters, Trump, so where’s the difference coming from?
Predicting Election 2024
Given the shifts within the electorate, predicting the outcome of the 2024 election will be challenging. Factors such as skyrocketing voter registrations—especially among younger voters and women—are at play, alongside declining support for Democrats among Black and Latino voters. Additionally, the dynamics among young white male voters remain uncertain.
Democratic enthusiasm, particularly among Harris supporters, is at a record high, fueled by abortion rights and Trump fatigue. Yet, these positive trends are countered by the voter suppression and nullification efforts of the Republican Party.
As these competing forces intersect, the landscape becomes increasingly complex, making it difficult to ascertain how voters will ultimately cast their ballots.
Because pollsters have to predict turnout to build their samples, they typically use past races as their guide. This time, though, the electorate may have shifted significantly from the 2020 and 2022 elections. They may find it difficult to get a sample that accurately reflects the electorate on November 5, 2024. These wildly differing polling outcomes may be due to just such difficulties. As a result, voters should remain skeptical of the numbers and aware that the political winds can change rapidly, making every vote crucial in this unpredictable landscape.
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The Psy of Life 
I agree, Jack!
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Hi Calico Jack, “I don’t see how anyone can be undecided.” I, too, was perplexed by this. And then I watched a panel of self-identified undecideds and understood. There were eight, all from “battleground” states. (Four men, four women, all white.) I concluded they shared personality traits – that of highly Conscientiousness, Neuroticism, and Introversion. (The on-line platform allowed for them to express themselves safely.) I also was able to conclude they were somewhat Open and dis-Agreeable.
Because of that, I think they will (most all) break for Trump. Thus, Trump wins.
They generally agree that they liked Trump’s policies but not his personalty/character. Yet didn’t trust Harris, saw her as inauthentic.
I agree – the polls are shit.
Peace out. 🙂
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Howdy Mark!
I don’t think there are many undecideds out there. In fact, I think there are about zero. Those people on Mark Halperin’s focus group show — Really, you’re trusting Mark “Rehabilitate My Career From My Sexual Harassment Fiasco” Halperin? — weren’t undecided. They were the once and future Trump voters.
I don’t know how you make your personality assessments or even what they have to do with being undecided voters.
I also don’t take the opinions of eight people chosen from various battleground states and make a sweeping conclusion. It doesn’t make much logical sense to do so.
The problem with the polls right now is the same problem as with the focus group, they aren’t using representative samples. It is nearly impossible to get representative samples because it is going to be nearly impossible to predict who is going to vote this time around.
One of the most reliable ways of predicting an election is finding a measure of enthusiasm that is reliable. Enthusiasm generally means that people will commit to making a definite act in support of something. In this case, attending rallies or protests, registering to vote, making donations, volunteering. In all of those metrics, the Dems are far far ahead. It strongly suggests that they are going to turn out all of those registering to vote, volunteering, and donating.
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Jack
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I agree with Annie. Ignore the polls. Don’t listen to people telling you what’s going on & therefore trying to influence you to change your vote.
I’ll tell you something else. I don’t think there’s any “undecided” voters out there. If you can’t decide between Harris & Trump, then you have cement for brains or you just don’t care & you’re not going to vote anyway. Everyone I know has decided who they’re voting for long ago. I see more Trump banners than Harris ones but that could be because Trump people are such assholes that they harass anyone who presents a different view & most of us who have different views just don’t want to deal with it. Sad but true.
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Howdy Silver!
I agree with you there. I don’t see how anyone can be undecided. I can see how someone might be unsure of whether or not they will cast a ballot, but not undecided about who they support for president or even which party they support. It seems to me that our divided politics are baked in at the moment. Maybe it will loosen up once Trump passes from the scene, but this year, no body seems like they could be undecided.
Huzzah!
Jack
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The key is to ignore the polls. I pay attention to Simon Rosenberg and Tom Bonier, the two Democratic strategists who said there’d be no red wave in 2022. They both believe that Dobbs changed everything and that the amazing numbers of new registrants (young, women, people of color) make polling today extremely difficult. We’ll soon be getting some early voting results that will be instructive.
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Howdy Annie!
Polling this time around, especially, will be incredibly difficult because the pollsters won’t be able to model the electorate accurately, so they won’t be using a representative sample. There are so many factors that have changed the electorate that there is no predicting turnout.
If the Republicans are successful in getting the election into the courts a la 2000, then all bets are off. And, there is no predicting how successful those court cases will be, either. I will say, though, that Trump seems awfully confident in the court strategy.
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Jack
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I’m not all that concerned about Trump’s court strategy; he’s delusional. And Marc Elias and many others are busy at work. (Yes; I know SCOTUS is at the ready.)
The most important thing is that we have a significant turnout for Harris/Walz—well past 2020–which will make shenanigans harder. Women’s collective roar, I believe, will make that turnout happen.
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Howdy Annie!
You’re right that the most important thing is to have a huge turnout and elect Harris by large margins. We’ll see if (a) that happens — it should in my view — and (b) if we find out about it. You know Trump et al. is going to try to suppress the counting of ballots so that the totals aren’t even known much less reported.
We’ve got a good legal team on our side. Marc Elias, the DNC legal team, the Harris campaign’s legal team, all of the Democratic state attorneys general, the DoJ. If they can get an eleventh circuit court to issue a stay on counting Georgia’s vote, then they can push it in the courts potentially delaying it past Safe Harbor Day and force SCOTUS to make a ruling like they did in 2000.
That’s the problem with the court strategy, it can go straight to SCOTUS without going through the lower courts. You know that’s what they’ll try to do.
We are not safe.
Huzzah!
Jack
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Hi, Jack—I am aware of everything you write here. For my own well-being AND my belief that we need people to be motivated to appreciate how important their individual votes are, I focus on a). I write my postcards, donate as much as I can—including to excellent groups working at the state level—and try to spread my optimism. “Do more; worry less” is my mantra (coined by Simon Rosenberg of Hopium fame).
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Howdy Annie!
I agree. I’m glad you’re doing the things you’re doing to help with the elections. I think we’d be remiss, though, if we didn’t acknowledge the legal risk the election. Unfortunately, the only remedy that people like you or I can contribute to is helping to get out the vote and donating to the legal teams that will champion the democratic side in those legal challenges.
Hope!
Jack
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Lopok here, folks, Donald Trump is either going to win this election or we are going to go through another Four years of chaos and division as he complains about how this election was stolen from him just like the other one. That much is certain.
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Howdy John!
I’m not so sure that Trump’s influence isn’t on the wain right now as we speak. His hold on the Republican Party is due to his ability to deliver his base, which isn’t enough to guarantee victory in any election except for those highly gerrymandered, but enough to guarantee defeat if you don’t have them.
As far as chaos goes, Trump will have some media presences and will hold some rallies. He might even inspire some isolated spats of violence by individuals.
If he loses the election, his influence is diminished that much further.
The real issue is his court strategy. If the Republicans are successful in getting the election into the court, then we don’t know how it will turn out.
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Jack
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Everyone should know by now that the Courts are the sole property of Trump (More or less). This should be obvious by observing how the courts have been delaying justice in his favor over all the allegations and investigations that have been made against him…It should be obvious to even the casual observer that the courts have been delaying everything in his favor since the inception…and do not forget the infrastructure of Trump loyalists that now occupy high offices at the state level and the local level in many jurisdictions. His shadow government has been operative for a long time now and they are orchestrating his coup in the background while America sleeps.
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There are still a lot of judges that believe in the rule of law and our jurisprudence even if they were appointed by Trump. They are not all Aileen Cannons or Samuel Alitos. It will depend on the jurisdiction. They will probably try to appeal it directly to SCOTUS, though. And, there all bets are off. His appointees there have not always been as friendly to his cases. They did deny him the 2020 court challenges.
The courts make it a real crap shoot though. The Roberts court has proven itself to be erratic, corrupt, and illiberal.
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Jack
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There are enough Americans who have been totally brainwashed from years of listening to the lies of right wing extremists on various media and who believe their lies and who do not even know that they have been lied too…there are enough of them to throw the election to Trump if the rest of the nations exhibits the apathy they have gained a reputation for… and besides, that bunch has been showing tendencies toward embracing a form of neo-nazi-ism for a long time now and we are in dire danger of becoming a “Strong-Man (Dictator) type nation with an individual in charge who has already been given immunity from any criminality he might practice while in office …If we escape totalitarianism this time around it will be a miracle of the God that far too many people have lost faith in …the one in whom we are supposed to be trusting…or so say the coins of the realm.
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Howdy John!
Yes, you’re right. MAGA is suffering from mass psychosis that has been induced by all of the lies, conspiracy theorists, and grievance politics pushed by the right. They are also willing to accept political violence as a solution to their problems if they don’t get satisfaction at the polls. However, I don’t agree that our electorate is all that apathetic anymore.
Since Trump’s arrival in 2016, we’ve seen huge increases in voter turn out and registration. Trump and the MAGA Republicans have LOST every election since. They still squeak out majorities in the House and Senate on occasion because of gerrymandering (the Senate was gerrymandered by the Constitution), but they don’t get large majorities.
Dobbs and abortion alone have activated a lot of voters. Voter registration since Harris became the nominee has skyrocketed. One way to predict elections is by measuring enthusiasm with the side with the most enthusiasm winning. Protests, rallies, voter registration, donations, campaign volunteers are all proxies for enthusiasm and they all favor Harris and the Democrats far more than the Trump and the MAGA Republicans this cycle.
This election really is going to be like no other. Polling is not going to be accurate. We’ve got an engaged and enlarged electorate. It is going to surprise us.
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Jack
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If what you just said turns out to be true, I am going to credit you with helping to restore my faith in humanity and I want to add that your words are very encouraging to me and are helping to alleviate a lot of the stresses that I have been enduring over this election thing. Thank you.
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No one can relax where Trump is involved. He’s going to try multiple pathways to cheating. He seems pretty confident that the courts are going to deliver for him, though. Maybe that is typical Trump delusion, maybe they’ve really got something. Who knows.
This election is so far outside of the mainstream that it can’t really be predicted, but my bet is that we’ll regress to the mean and vote to maintain our democracy in large numbers.
Huzzah!
Jack
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One of the reasons I worry so much about this is that nearly half the country has gotten so much propaganda from Fox News and elsewhere that they no longer have any idea of what a democracy is or what one is supposed to be– they have heard the lies so long… and they have isolated themselves in the world where the lies are originating for so long, they have begun to absorb and believe the lies and cannot be reasoned with when someone goes against their mis-information-ridden beliefs… they are “True Believers” (Fanatics). And if that demented half of the country has a big enough following, they can throw the entire country under the heel of dictatorship disguised in the robes of democracy but carrying the jack booted torches and beating the oligarchical authoritarian drums of what might turn out to be the First Maga Reich.
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Howdy John!
One of the things we do is we tend to overestimate the actual size of MAGA, especially the likely to vote MAGA. Not all Fox viewers vote. In fact, I’d like it if someone could parse out the percentage and numbers of cable news network viewers who do vote. That would be an interesting number to see.
Not all MAGA are true believers or fanatics, either. There was a study done in which Fox News viewers were recruited to watch CNN and exclude Fox for a month (I think, maybe it was three months). They had mechanisms in place to help assure that it was CNN that was on in the house. After getting most of their news from CNN, the views on various issues ranging from abortion to immigration to the state of the economy moderated substantially and support for Trump diminished.
The problem is that Fox News is still out there and many people are still watching it.
You’re right, though. The MAGA faithful would be happy to not only throw us all under the jackbooted heel of the Trump fascists but also that of the rest of the world. They’ll happily sacrifice our planets ability to support eight billion people if it hurts Black people first and worst and it means our one hundred billionaires have a chance to become five hundred billionaires before we all die miserable deaths from the ravages of climate change.
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Jack
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I strongly suspect that changing demographics, Democratic enthusiasm, Abortion as an issue, and Trump/MAGA fatigue have rendered some assumptions in the weighting of poll sampling models obsolete, or at least skewed for this election.
In Arizona, the situation is downright squirrely . Lake is unpopular among many Republicans. Trump has lost a chunk of the Mormons on moral grounds. And Republican officials at both the state level and Maricopa County levels have strongly defended election integrity against such as Lake and Trump. Then, there’s the tribal voters who are very hard to poll.
Here in North Carolina it is now generally agreed that Robinson is toast. The Independents (1/3 of registers voters, the rest evenly divided between D & R) are disgusted with him. To hard core MAGAs, he’s Black. To Black voters, he’s an Oreo. Our current Governor, Democrat Roy Cooper won handily in two elections where Trump won the state, and is popular for standing up to the GOP controlled legislature (We seem to like divided government.). That legislature would not be GOP majority is not for some truly awesome Gerrymandering supported by a Republican majority State Supreme Court which reversed ant-Gerrymandering decisions by the previous Democrat majority court. Stein has been popular and effective as AG with a reputation as a straight arrow law man (similar, in that way to Harris). Here, too, demographics have shifted with significant movement into the state by both citizens and immigrants, and population loss (the young people leaving for the cities) in some rural counties. And, some areas of the state have been having intense experiences with the effects of climate change, with resulting large increases in things like home and business insurance rates.
Locally, here in Franklin and Macon County, which lean very conservative, in last Spring’s County Republican Primary (no Democrat was running.) two lifetime career officers wiped the floor with two loudly MAGA candidates (“God, Guts, and Guns” types), and just last week came the creation of a “Republicans For Harris” committee with yard signs.
I wish the pollsters good luck.
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Howdy Bob!
I really appreciate the direct news straight from North Carolina and your neck of the woods. I’m glad to know that moderate Republicans have won against MAGA candidates. It does give one hope.
It also makes me wonder why they don’t start a political party even at the state or local level. It is really tough to start a party, but there are enough billionaires floating around the country and one might could be convinced to bankroll such an effort. True, they probably wouldn’t start winning right away, but they could split the Republican vote.
I don’t trust the folks in charge of the Lincoln Party and other anti-Trump former Republican groups. I figure they’re just in it to grift off of Trump’s name and hoping to be around when he finally dies off both literally and figuratively. Their reasoning for not starting a new party is that it would pull from centrist Democrats and might help Trump win, but I think that is BS. Their just ain’t enough Joe Manchins in this world.
From your explanation, I can see Republicans in North Carolina backing Stein over Robinson but still voting for Trump. However, I imagine that there has to be more than a few that will also then vote for Harris. The same doesn’t work in Arizona, though. I can’t imagine that a Gallego supporter would vote for Trump or a Lake supporter, Harris, so what happened to all the voters who are supporting Trump in Arizona, but not Lake? For Harris, that’s room to grow. Those folks are getable. In North Carolina, there should be some Republicans that she can convince to make the switch.
What we don’t know is what the internal campaign polling is telling them. Campaign polling tends to be better than the commercial polls. However, the campaign pollsters are suffering from the same problems everyone else is, creating a representative sample.
One thing I hope in North Carolina is that there is backlash against the state supreme court and some of those seats get turned over and a Democratic majority installed. What do you think?
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Jack
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There are definitely a lot of Democrats and Independents in NC who are seriously pissed off by the decisions, especially the reversals of previous ones on Gerrymandering, from the Republicans on the court. Also up are abortion (of course), pulling more money from public schools for vouchers, requiring county sheriffs to honor ICE detainers, voter ID, and more, all coming from a veto proof legislature trying to enact Plan 2025 no mater who wins the White House. And then, there is that monster Robinson. There may be some surprises in the down ballot. Democrats are very organized here for phone banking, canvassing, post carding, etc.
Campaigns tend not to talk about their internal polling unless it is very good news, or they lie about it. If they are not talking or leaking about it it. it is probably inside margin of error, or bad.
Those Republican incumbents, candidates, and groups who are going against Trump but not talking about leaving the party are still dreaming of taking the party back from the MAGAs, or waiting for Trump to die. If the Blue Wave is big enough, many of them will be swept away with the rest.
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Howdy Bob!
I’m heartened to hear your report on NC. How have voter suppression and nullification efforts been there. Georgia makes the news and then there is mention of other states, but little to nothing more specific than that.
My feeling is that the Trump campaign seems spooked, or, maybe, it is just Trump. One of my thoughts was that it was their internal polling in specific states. His boasts about not needing votes tells you that he’s worried about getting the votes he needs, but given the difficulty in predicting the demographic of the electorate, I’m not sure anyone can get a clear or accurate poll in any state.
My feeling is that the anti-Trump folks are trying to wait them out, take the party back, and get back to the political shenanigans of the Reagan, Gingrich, and W era. They haven’t changed. They just find Trump’s lack of subtlety and his ample coarseness offensive. Right now, their just grifting off the anti-Trump Republicans, liberals, and progressives until they can get back to accusing people like Max Cleland and John Kerry of having been derelict in their duty and other more subtle disparagements.
Huzzah!
Jack
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That all seems about right to me. The Republicans who are not MAGAs are still Reagan, etc. Republicans an not to be trusted.
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Right now they’re just grifting off liberals until they can get back to gutting liberals like they did Max Cleland and grifting off the expanded Republican base once Trump moves off this mortal coil.
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For some of them, their problem with Trump is that he keeps saying the quiet stuff out loud and exposing the real agenda. And that goes for the Heritage gang too. The sheer hubris that led them to let Plan 2025 see the public light of day is simply amazing.
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Howdy Bob!
They are so confident in their rigged elections and the electorate so uninterested in the details that it wouldn’t matter. The basic ingredients of hubris. May they continue committing such hubris.
Huzzah!
Jack
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Exactly. Much has been written across the millennia about the hazards of such over confidence.
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The low propensity voter is low propensity for a reason. But, apparently, they are all the rage this year with Indivisible having developed their “Neighbor 2 Neighbor” volunteer program to give you the names and I guess addresses of people in your neighborhood you can talk to about voting. He won 2016 by getting new and low propensity voters to turn out. He got 10 million more in 2020. but the Dems also got 15 million more votes in 2020 than 2016.
When he won in 2016, it was the worse thing that could’ve ever happened to him. If he wins again in 2024, though, it may be the best thing.
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Jack
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Or, it could be the worst if JD sees him weak enough to be reduced to a figure head or shuffled off to his own private memory care unit.
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I think anyone who tries to push Trump off of center stage, dementia or not, will find it isn’t going their way. MAGA loves Trump. They don’t love anyone else. It’s a hard lesson to learn, and some have needed to learn it the hard way.
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Probably so, but what if they no longer need the real Donald and a deep fake will do. Once, with enough control, it can be normalized that “The Trump” does not appear in public, only on screens and through loudspeakers, “he” can be like Big Brother in 1984, an image, a voice, and immortal. And a generation onward, nobody would think it strange, or if they did, would not dare say so.
As for “The Trump” as an office, remember, after Julius, all the emperors were “Caesar”.
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I suppose all of that is possible, but I would not bet on “controlling” Trump, especially a deeply demented Trump.
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Oh, I didn’t mean control of Trump. It was control of us. The question is what is the team to do the when the God Emperor of Merica is no longer presentable. Then, the technology of AI can come to the rescue.
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MAGA would buy it. There are some of us who might could realize it was all AI, smoke and mirrors, and BS. That’s the problem with MAGA. They’re too big to ignore but not big enough to win anything other than squeaker-type elections that we screw up and don’t turn out for.
Jack
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The would for sure. And this one is a must win.
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