Anxiety over the economy is soaring. It is higher now than any time since the Great Recession. Economic uncertainty means that the economy is in danger of entering into a recession or worse. Supply chains and trade agreements have been jeopardized by Trump’s global economic war — Does that make it a world war? Is this World War III: The Economic Boogaloo?
Even though nations and companies are “negotiating” — <cough> bribing <cough> — with Trump for tariff relief, no one can be certain of what is happening right now, much less in the near future. One day the Penguins of McDonald Island are paying a 10% tariff on all of their exports, the next it is 20%, and the third, well, just because they’re penguins doesn’t mean they don’t have to pay their fair share, right? They don’t call it moistening Trump’s beak for nothing.
Everyone and everything is in an uproar, and then Trump announces a ninety day delay in implementing at least some tariffs. Before you let the flop sweat dry in your pits, you should know that much damage to the world’s economy has already been done. And, Trump has inflicted such damage to our trade partnerships and standing in the world that it will be difficult to repair.
The Chaos and Confusion of Trump’s Tariffs
Trump has always surrounded himself with chaos and confusion. He believes that behaving erratically and unpredictably gives him an advantage. If no one knows what he’s going to do next, then everyone is left hanging on his every word and cannot be prepared for what he’ll be doing. He thinks he’s being crazy like a fox. In reality, he’s just causing the US to be isolated from its allies and ceding economic and diplomatic territory to its enemies like China and Russia.
Like all of Trump’s other beliefs, this one is wrong.
Predictability is necessary for human societies to exist and thrive. The larger the society, the more predictable things need to be, especially where the economy is concerned. When things are predictable, they run much more smoothly and successfully.
Predictability walks hand in hand with believability in that you have to believe that something will happen in the future. If you can confidently predict a future event, you will trust (believe) that it will happen, and then act accordingly.
Belief and the Economy
Here’s how it all works according to historian, Yuval Noah Harari:
Money, a Cognitive Construct
- Money is a cognitive construct that systematically represents the value of goods and services to facilitate trade.
- It allows us to easily and quickly compare the value of disparate goods and services.
- It allows us to store our wealth conveniently — as long as it the hard-drive with all of our cryptocurrency stored on it doesn’t go out in the garbage, right?
- Along with everything else, it has made the jump to computers with 90% of money — more than $50 trillion — only existing on computers somewhere in the world.
- As long as everyone wants money, then your money has value. There’s a reason the Cambodian rial is impossible to exchange outside of Cambodia, no body wants it!
The Belief of Money
The economy only works because we believe in the future. Here’s how that works:
- I work five days a week, four and a half weeks a month to get paid at the end of the month. I believe I will get paid.
- The bank gives me my mortgage — half a million euros — because they believe I will give them my monthly payment every month for the next twenty years!
- I take the mortgage — did I mention it was half a million euros? — because I believe I will have a job that will pay me enough money every month to pay my mortgage.
- The grocery store buys a ton of groceries to stock their shelves with because they believe they will be sold at a profit before they rot.
- The farmer plants their field with a crop and tends it all season long believing that it will be sold to a food company.
- The bank lends the grocery store and farmer money to invest in their stores and farms believing that they will make the sales that will allow the loans to be paid back.
We all see how this works. You have to believe that the future will pay out for your hard work today. If I thought my employer was going bankrupt — and I’ve personally worked at an establishment that went bankrupt and we all knew it was coming — you think twice and even three times about going in to work. The bank can call the loan and take possession of your home if you forfeit your mortgage.
If we stop believing that goods and services will be bought, we stop providing the goods and services. We start looking for other ways to provide for our daily needs. We need to trust that the economy will keep working.
Trump’s Tariffs and Believing in the Future
Trump’s tariffs are making all of that belief in the future difficult. When the metrics that are used to measure economic uncertainty spike, economists start worrying about recession. Right now, we’re seeing the greatest jump in uncertainty in like ever. And economic uncertainty is rivaling that of the #COVID19 pandemic.
With this kind of uncertainty, everyone gets conservative: businesses slow down on the amount they invest and the number of people they hire. Consumers delay big expenditures, especially the ones requiring credit.
Did you know that while the stock market is crashing and weaving more than a drunken frat bro in rush week, no one is buying US bonds? Usually when the stock market is in turmoil, bond sales go up, but no one wants a US bond. That’s crazy. Bonds are what fund our government deficit.
Is Trump going to follow through with his tariffs? Are individual countries and companies going to be able to bribe their way to exceptions? Does it matter? Who owns most of the US debt? China, and China is dumping its US bonds. Who is going to be foolish enough to buy them?
Our closest trade partners and allies are actively seeking new trading partners and allies to insulate themselves from the damage this erratic and irrational person is can cause them. They are abandoning us like rats on a sinking ship because they no longer believe — tariffs today, tariffs removed tomorrow, tariffs returned the next day — that the US is a good economic partner. They will vote with their feet and take their business elsewhere. And who could really blame them?
Image Attribution
This image was found on History.com using a DuckDuckGo Creative Commons search.
The Psy of Life 
Just forget all the ruminating about Trump and the things he does and realize that the Rubicon has been crossed and America does not have a future anymore.. In fact, America ceased to exist on November 5, 2025.
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Howdy John!
Unfortunately, real live human beings have to continue living in the US. It’s up to them — I’m not currently living there and not making any plans to — to defy the government and limit the damage done. Luckily, we’ve got AOC and Sanders barnstorming the country whipping up support for resisting the fascists. We’ve got protests happening at ICE hearings and regional HQs. And, we’ve got frequent protests to show our numbers.
It is going to take real work and sacrifice by real people to take the US back from the fascists. Unfortunately, millions, tens of millions, even hundreds of millions of people will suffer for it in the US.
Huzzah!
Jack
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The only reason that a dollar is worth anything is because we all agree to pretend that it has stable value and then behave accordingly. If that element of the social contract is broken, then we are left with barter, armed robbery, or slavery.
As things are Trump has us all living in the chaos in his head. That can’t end well. The question now is whether the rest of us will go down with him.
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Howdy Bob!
We are witnessing the process of the world changing its belief system. The US dollar is no longer the go to currency. No one is buying US bonds, which is the only thing that makes the US debt floating and the dollar viable. We already are going down, the question is how far will we sink before we start clawing our way out of the hole Trump is burying us in.
The worst is already happening. China is limiting the export of its processed rare earth materials. Without them, we don’t make any high tech things — smart phones, stealth fighters, nuclear submarines — you know, the things we need to maintain the lifestyle to which we’ve become accustomed.
How quickly will the world’s economy adapt and isolate the US replacing trade and manufacturing that was once done with us with other countries? Probably, not quickly enough.
Huzzah!
Jack
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We have handed China much of the world on a silver platter with our wholesale exit from any and every form of alliance, humanitarian “soft power” relationships, and Trump’s addiction to unpredictability (or, arguably, his inability to be predictable). They are playing hardball and showing they can meet his bet and anti up his every escalation. They just cancelled all their standing orders for Boeing aircraft over the next 20 years, more than 8,000 planes. Although AirBuss is happy about that, it is also a clear sign that China is planning to get into that market and build their own.
It is simply not possible to maintain the size and level of technological civilization we have in the “developed world” and beyond, without an efficient global supply chain. The idea that any large nation can go it alone with purely predatory relationships with the rest of the world is delusional. Now, no matter what we might do to take down Trump and reverse course, the lost trust will not be regained without some fundamental change in our political system that reduces our volatility and pattern of flipping between extremes , and then not quickly.
About the oligarchs, it is a mistake to think about them in ideological terms. They don’t operate out of ideology. What they have is greed, hubris, and fear. Psychopathy is not an ideology. It’s a condition.
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Howdy Bob!
President Xi was just here in Cambodia staying at the Sofitel — not the most expensive or luxurious of Phnom Penh’s top tier hotels, by the way — which is, literally, right next door to where I live. I can see it from my balcony. He’s been on a quick jaunt around SouthEast Asia making trade reassurances and finding places to take up the slack that the American tariffs are producing. He’s also already fully funded the very successful Cambodian de-mining operation that USAID had been funding.
In addition to canceling the Boeing order, he’s limiting the export of processed rare earth minerals, which China has about 90% of the market of. Without those products, we can’t produce any of the hight tech gadgetry we’ve come to rely on in either our daily lives, our national defense, or our national security. In short, we’re fucked until we can take possession of Greenland and Canada so we can have guaranteed source of these materials. Of course, we could do it just through trade, but what fun is there in that?
That China would enter the commercial aircraft industry isn’t at all surprising. They already have developed an independent space industry building their own space station and exclusively using their own satellites and rockets. They are already manufacturing their own military aircraft. Their automotive industry is actually the best in the world, we just don’t realize it because of tariffs.
China has also begun getting its oil directly from Canada. If I remember rightly, over the past decade, China’s import of US oil has fallen by 700% with a large percentage of that drop off coming since Trump’s election. Canada and the EU are in talks about how to use their soon to be idle car-related factories, which will result in more weapons and European car production. India is looking to overtake Russia in the supply of weapons, which is incidental to the Russian war in Ukraine, sanctions against Russia, improved high-tech skills in their population, and a vacuum in the market created by tariffs.
The ease with which countries are looking for other trading partners, deals, and treaties that exclude the US is astonishing. It is moving nearly as fast as Trump is.
Trump has done Xi a big big favor by creating all of this economic chaos. Before Trump, Xi was actually in trouble in China due to the shaky footing the economy since the #COVID19 pandemic. It was questionable whether he could recover from that since the economy is still in the doldrums and showing no signs of coming out of it.
My personal example is the sale of our apartment in Paris. It has lost about 3% of its value since Trump took office, but the Euro has gained remarkably in value, so when it does sell, we’ll make back much of that loss in the exchange from Euros to Canadian dollars. The alternative is to hold the apartment and wait for the market to settle to see if it will begin to regain value, but, frankly, I don’t have a lot of hope in that. I’m thinking cash in hand is far more important at this point.
You make a valid point about psychopathy being the driver of our current administrative practice rather than ideology. Trump is running a shakedown operation. Any and all government services to individuals, states, or nations must include a cut for him personally. He’s created so many ways that he can profit from the economic chaos he’s creating, one of which is insider trading, which has been all over the news lately, but others are the many avenues that individuals and governments can pay him directly.
Once the milk is soured, it takes a while for anyone to trust that it is good again. We’ve already lost. The only question that remains is how much have we lost.
Blog On, Sibling!
Jack
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I’ve been thinking about China’s trajectory since Deng Xiaoping took over after the catastrophes of the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution, turning toward state capitalism with the intention to end China’s reputation for making cheap junk and creating a long term industrial policy in that managed economy with an attitude of “Anything you can make, we can make better, and more efficiently, even if it takes decades to get there.”. Their focus on consumer electronics has certainly worked. They found a middle path (which makes sens for the Middle Kingdom) between the failures of the top down (and horribly corrupt) Soviet model and the vagueness and boom-bust cycles of free market capitalism, and policy flipflopping of (especially) American politics over the past 50 years.
Trump wants lower interest rates. Of course he does. He would always rather play with other people’s money than his own, especially if he and his friends are playing both sides of an engineered volatile stock market (short selling to drive the down and up selling). If he tries to fire Chairman Powell the markets will crash for real, litigation will ensue on the attempt, and if he succeeds and replaces Powell with a useful idiot, he will discover that the Chairman is not the boss, but the first among equals with the regional chairs making decisions as committee seeking consensus.
The implicit trust in the US as an ally, trading partner, owner of the world reserve currency, and “Leader of the Free World” is gone. Even if we get rid of Trump and set out to turn that around, it will take competent, bipartisan, stable management for at least the rest of this century to have a chance of getting all that back. If the 20th was “The American Century”, the 21st may well come to be known as The Chinese Century”, if we still have historians in the 22nd.
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Howdy Bob!
Mexico is a good instructive example. However many decades ago when NAFTA was first negotiated, Mexico couldn’t assemble cars or do complex high-tech manufacturing because their work force was too poorly trained. As incomes rose from making low-tech car parts and assembling low-tech components into larger parts, they were able to improve their training. Now, they are able to assemble cars and could begin producing their own cars if they wanted to.
Xi is a technocrat. He’s far more interested in finding the best utilization of resources to systematically develop China’s work force to be able to produce rockets, satellites, moon-bases, moon-based mining operations, and other high tech machines so that China can compete with the West for resources. He and China have been far more successful than the ideologues like Mao and even Deng because of it.
In the near future, we will fight a war over the moon. China is not interested in turning space and the moon into another Antarctica, which it should be so that we don’t destroy the moon in our destructive hedonistic rush to exploit its resources.
It is unbelievable to me that the titans of industry and whatever social segment of bros (frats, incels, tech, and whoever else) couldn’t, wouldn’t, and didn’t learn any lessons from Trump 1.0 and realize the existential threat that he poses to all of our well-being. But, here we are. Diffusion of responsibility and cognitive dissonance may be able to keep many consciousnesses clear of guilt but it is not going to keep real live people from being badly hurt and killed by this admin or prevent the damage to the country or world.
It is clear that Trump and his admin are out for themselves. They are going to make as much money off of insider trading, grift, and corruption as they can. They’re letting the ideologues and racists run rampant (Miller, RFK, and whoever else) while they make their money. Then, they’ll move on to live in the splendor that their ill-gotten gains will afford them while the rest of us suffer from self-serving maliciousness. Why no one in any position of responsibility and power could not see this coming — Chuck Schumer, Adam Schiff, Hakeem Jeffries, et al. are too worried about maintaining their own little fiefdoms to risk really trying to stop Trump — and play a part in stopping it is beyond me. Too many NYTs and big money law firms and too few Harvards and Pro Publicas.
Huzzah!
Jack
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Sometimes, I can almost see Trump as a time traveler from Britain or some other of the European powers in the colonial assault on the rest of the world, with the Mercantilism model that the colonies were to be suppliers of raw materials and markets for manufactured goods. His idea of a “Minerals Deal” with Ukraine is a prime example. He, and many of his oligarch supporters can’t understand that the former colonies will, like Mexico and China, the “Developing World”, are reaping the economic benefits of the long process of turning populations of peasants, subsistence farmers, and former surfs into ones of skilled, urban industrial workers. That is, after all, a primary cause of our rebellion against our colonial status and industrial development through the 19th Century.
How do we get through to so many politicians of whatever party that there are more important things than their own reelection?
Yes, we need more Harvards and Po-Publicas, and WIREDs, and many more Marats.
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Howdy Bob!
It’s the basis of white privilege. Essentially, the white man’s burden is just a rationalization for the vicious exploitation and oppression of non-whites for our own economic gain. It hasn’t changed. We just forgot the rationalization part. Now, it just seems “natural” that the world bow to us and yield its riches for our benefit.
When Reagan smeared all politicians with being self-serving and crass, he started down that slippery slope of ensuring that all politicians would be self-serving and crass, so the only thing that mattered was winning elections. Now, we’re stuck with a generation or more of politicians who are only in it for themselves and to remain in position and a population so jaded that they don’t realize they can just vote them out of office rather than imposing term limits. It is the sublime destruction of democracy.
Maybe the outcome of the Great Civics Lesson is that the American populace retakes its place as the supreme force in our democracy or maybe it is that democracy is too hard, lets all post memes and play video games instead.
Huzzah!
Jack
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It is, I fear, an open question whether a heterogeneous, large democracy can manage the multiple, long term crises now in play, and reach a durable consensus on the size and speed of the changes required. It is clearly not going to happen when at least one of two political parties traffics on lies, fantasies, and corruption, and the other has long needed a generational change of leadership. But if, indeed we need a king, it cannot be a mad king, and I don’t see any candidates worthy of becoming a philosopher king. We’d probably fare better with a simply competent queen.
I got to thinking about the long, very long arch of Chinese history, and the Treasure Fleets of the 15th Century (1405-1433). When the project was shut down and the ships burned, they were (by some records) working their way up the west coast of Africa. I would guess that had they continued they would have arrive in European ports within another ten years and blown everybody’s mind. Their naval architecture was so far in advance of anything the Europeans had even imagined, there was no contest. Instead, they pulled back, shut the doors and turned inward, leaving the global south, and ultimately themselves, to the tender mercies of the European barbarians. In that context, I can see the Belt and Road and XI’s current diplomacy as not saying “Hello” to the world, but as saying, “We’re back.”. In the context of Chinese history, 500 years isn’t all that long a time, not in their scale of long game.
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Howdy Bob!
Nothing unites quite like crisis, though. You get that rally around the flag effect, but I don’t think we’ll be rallying around Trump. Right now, it looks like we might actually rally around AOC and Sanders. The beauty part of democracy is that it self-corrects. As long as the crises that Trump is creating and the climate crisis don’t completely consume the country, we can self-correct and get back to the centering effect that democracy leans into.
This is where I think the parliamentary style democracy may have us beat. You can have votes of no confidence, which is what would be happening if we had a parliament. You can call snap elections to move the country from a course that proves disastrous. But, it only works if you accept the outcome of elections and the majority works with the minority to govern, two things that Republicans have refused to do in the past forty years.
China’s belt and road thing is interesting. Not everyone is embracing it since it comes with such heavy strings attached to it. Trump has done Xi a solid. Their economy was on the skids and not recovering from their disastrous handling of the #COVID19 pandemic. It wasn’t inconceivable that Xi would be replaced. Now, Trump is giving him export markets soft power aide and diplomacy and military alliances whatever he needs to recover from their declining birthrates and moribund economy. So, there’s that boost to the “we’re back” of China in the 21st century.
Huzzah!
Jack
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The signs certainly are that “The Resistance” is growing fast, the rallies and demonstrations bigger and more numerous, office holders phone lines overwhelmed (5 Calls works), and some reluctant Democrat politicians doing things. Self correction is central to any theory of democracy, the necessity of the Opposition free to challenge and call out the BS. I find it a bit curious that the Trump cabal are so slow in responding to the rallies and such, apparently relying on the old tropes of “paid demonstrators” and exaggerated numbers. Can it really be that they can only see the adversaries like “the left wing media”, and DEI policies, and not the grass roots?
The other feature of most parliamentary systems that makes a huge difference is the multiplicity of parties, and with it the possibilities of shifting coalitions around different subjects. In some ways, I can see our current predicament as the inherent weaknesses of a partisan duopoly catching up with us.
China and XI may well be found in the hindsight of history to be the biggest beneficiaries of the Trump insanity, assuming it doesn’t come to a shooting war.
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Howdy Bob!
Because you can make coalitions and not have “big tent” parties trying to fit numerous issue positions together in one political organization, parliamentary systems encourage multiple parties. In many way it is a more robust way of using democratic principles to rule because it resists corruption, but, then, you have Hungary and Turkiye as examples of corrupt backsliding parliamentary systems. However, the UK has contended with Brexit about as well as can be expected, maybe even better because of the flexibility inherent in the system.
Late in the campaign, Trump and Johnson were pretty smug in their predictions of his impending victory. It felt different than his usual hubristic bravado to me. I think many in the GOP feel like they’ve got 2026 and beyond rigged. 2020 was a surprise to them. They thought they had the voter suppression, nullification, disinformation combination right. 2024 demonstrated what worked and didn’t at the state level, so now they’re reproducing that in as many states as they can. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were more aggressive and blatant cheating going on. Either way, though, the GOP feels like it is beyond being held accountable by voters.
And, I don’t think Trump really cares a fig for what happens after 2026 and is grabbing everything he can right now. He’s having his revenge on the country and world. He’s lining his pockets and filing his off-shore bank accounts. He’s gaslighting he country so he can continue doing it for as long as he can continue getting away with it. But, if it all blows up on him, then he’s got his exit.
The for-profit media doesn’t really report on the protests. The difference I see in the coverage by the legacy media, the for-profit cable news channels, and mainstream online media and podcasts is really different from what I see on the more liberal, left-leaning, independent online media and podcasts. As long as they’ve got their media propaganda machines and much of the for-profit media cowed, I don’t think they’re worried about the protests. The only time protests have really mattered is when they’ve made big news, like the Edmund Pettus Bridge, Bull Connor and his dogs, Kent State, the anit-Viet Nam War protests did. The Black Lives Matter protests and the Portland mess demonstrated how control of the media narrative and framing of the protests could either blunt their effect by sowing chaos and confusion through contradiction and selectively broadcasting images and interviews. If the current round of protests don’t make the nightly news and are not shown on Fox, then they don’t think they’ve got a thing to worry about from them no matter how big they get.
The MAGA base has demonstrated that they are satisfied by being fed tropes and red meat. How they’ll react when the policies really start biting is another questions, but will the GOP have figured out how to limit voting to only the party loyalists so effectively and propagate such disinformation that they can survive a MAGA revolt? Maybe.
Trump 1.0 showed us all that Trump does not care about the future and is willing to sacrifice anyone and anything for his own ego needs — Georgia getting two Democratic senators? That’s down to Trump. But, the GOP has learned from that. Georgia has been their voter suppression proving ground.
Canada’s Carney and the Liberal Party have been rescued by whatever backlash Trudeau engendered by Trump and his antics.
Huzzah!
Jack
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I think the GOP has, perhaps, learned that ignoring or downplaying popular resistance, at least up to some point, works better with their base than coming right out the gate with violent suppression. Part of that is probably due to having built up their popular media, both broadcast and on-line, so that their followers can inhabit a complete separate reality. And, having increasing control of who gets to vote and have their votes counted allows them to try to ignore popular resistance. If that stops working, they do have violent options. We will know that’s coming when they start portraying demonstrators as violent rather than unimportant and even ridiculous.
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They also have MAGA itself to fall back on to violently react to protests. There are lots of Kyle Rittenhouses out there who would love to have the life he was rewarded with. They would also like to have a couple more notches in their ammo belts than he has.
Jack
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It is interesting that the would-be “Rittenhouses” don’t seem to be showing up yet, but that does not men they won’t if The Leader asks them to.
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But, the Rittenhouses probably don’t know as much about the protests as they did about BLM. Partly, that’s just a lack of coverage by the right-wing media, which is probably driven by the overwhelming whiteness of the demonstrators. If the protesters were predominately Black, they would be covered and the Rittenhouses would be shooting each other in an effort to shoot the protesters.
Huzzah!
Jack
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That is very likely.
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Maybe they all want to be ICE agents.
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This whole tariff thing is one big con….we mere peasants worry about the future and the wealthy dream of more and more cash thanx to Trump….good post my friend chuq
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Howdy Chuq!
If human kind survives long enough — I’m not sure that we will given Trump et al’s antics — we may eventually find out where all the money that Trump is taking in came from and where it went, kinda like we did in the Panama Papers scandal.
I swear the only explanation for any of this that makes sense is that the oligarch class is trying to crash the world economy so they can buy up the pieces and consolidate their monopolies on specific industries.
But, whatever they are doing and for whatever reason, it is going to end up in a great big mess with billions of people suffering because of it.
Huzzah!
Jack
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That sounds like a plan for them….and it makes perfect sense….hopefully I will be gone by the time of the great depression (again)…..have a good day Jack chuq
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Howdy Chuq!
I’m thinking the depression hits sooner rather than later. Unfortunately.
Huzzah!
Jack
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The indicators are there…..I will be watching to moves made of avoid the inevitable. chuq
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Howdy Chuq!
I’m fixing to retire this year. I gotta say, all of this is scaring the crap out of me. Ma Belle Femme and our financial advisor assure that we’re still fine — the rule in our family is that I never have anything to do with money — so there’s that.
But, it is more than past time to make sure your finances are in order and your assets secure.
Huzzah!
Jack
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Congrats on your retirement…..I have been so for 12 years and this year I worry that all will not end well for us mere peons. chuq
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I’m just glad we’ve kept our finances separate from the US and are not returning. I hope you’re in a good situation that they cannot mess up too badly for you.
Jack
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I think I am but who can be sure these days. chuq
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I think that is part of the point. No one can be sure.
Jack
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These days certainty is fleeting at best. chuq
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Trump’s tariff just showed, how ambiguous he is, he can’t even, settle on a, “fixed rate” to charge other countries, everything under him is unpredictable, because that’s how he likes it, by keeping the economy uncertain, he somehow, feels that, he’s, in control, which is why, it’s dangerous for the United States, along with the rest of the world’s nations, that he’s the one, in control of the executive branch of one of the world’s most powerful, governments.
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Howdy Taurus!
Essentially you are correct. He feels powerful when he can keep everyone else off balance by through his executive dysfunction.
Unfortunately, he means to do real harm to lots of real people. The deciding factor will be who will pay him enough not to directly harm them.
Huzzah!
Jack
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