READING TIME: 5 minutes
SUMMARY: Human beings HATE thinking, so we have ceded our political decisions to two strategies: party affiliation and letting the other side have a turn. These two strategies explains the outcome of every election since Reagan, but it won’t explain 2026 because they’ve quit working. We are in real danger of needing to think for ourselves, and we’re pissed off about it.
KEY WORDS: Electorate, Democratic, Republican, Independent, Voter, Lean Democratic, Lean Republican, Party Affiliation, Identity Politics, Democratic Socialists, Pragmatists
COMMENT: What mood is the electorate in? Why?
The Two Tools of the Electorate
Voting in national elections is guided by two factors: political identity and switching parties when the economy is bad.
But, if It really is that simple, why are we so electing democratic socialists and pragmatists focused on local issues?
The problem in our politics isn’t that one side is an anti-democatic fascist party or that the other side is a milque-toast stick-to-the-norms-and-establishment-corporatists paty. The problem is that those are our two choices and neither choice seems to work.
SPOILER ALERT: That isn’t true. Biden’s economy was the best in the world at the time. Trump’s economy was riding Obama’s into the ground.
Usually, we vote for the candidates in the party that we identify with. That usually keeps things going and everyone happy-ish because the country plods along and we don’t have to think too much about things. The thinking part is key to all of this. Because thinking is hard and we avoid it, we use our two voting rules to make political decisions.
The problem we’re having right now is that our two rules have quit working. We are miserable. We voted our party affiliation in 2016, and it blew up in our faces. We tried switching parties in 2020 and were miserable by 2024. So, we switched parties AGAIN in 2024, and we’re even miserabler.
That leaves us staring at the mid-terms scratching our ass and thinking, now what?
Party Affiliation is Easier than Thinking
That Democrats vote for Democrats and Republicans for Republicans and that elections are decided by independents isn’t exactly mind-blowing analysis. It’s easier to align with one of the major parties and vote for their candidates than it is to understand the issues facing the country, figure out where candidates stand on each issue, and then decide on who to vote for.
Who has time to figure it all out, even with the Interwebs and AI buddies helping out. We got much more important things to do like solving Wordle puzzles and watching Tik Tok videos. Anyway, aren’t more and more of us are identifying as independent voters, so maybe its all moot! Maybe someone is thinking of the issues and the stances and all that, right?
Short answer, nope. Long answer: independents are an illusion and true independents are low-information low-participation voters.
The Illusion of Independent Voters
Polling tells us that the ranks of independents have swollen to the largest proportion of the electorate than ever before. Nearly half of all respondents in a recent Gallop poll claimed to not be affiliated with any major political party, with twenty percent of them “leaning” Democratic, fifteen percent, Republican, and ten percent, neither. The remainder were split evenly between Democratic and Republican affiliation, for about a quarter each.
Pew reports that independent voters leaned towards one party or another.What that really means is about fifty percent of the electorate votes Democratic, forty-seven percent, Republican, leaving three percent as true independents.
So, independent voters are an illusion. They don’t really exist no matter how much we want them to.
Disengaged Low-Propensity Low-Information Independent Voters
Political science says that independent voters are less likely to be engaged in politics, so they won’t save us even if they did exist.
The lower you are on the information totem pole, the more likely you are to change your political opinions to match the politicians you are stanning for. Only 20 to 40% of the participants in the study had stable policy positions, meaning they didn’t change according to the politics being espoused by a party or individual. Take a moment to be smug because all y’all think you’re in that 20 to 40%. Eighty to 60% changed their political opinions to match those of their favorite politicians even if those positions were invented for purposes of the study.
As we said, thinking is hard, better to cede the thinking to the party. In 2016, Republicans turned out their base and recruited some low-propensity voters and won. In 2020, there was a huge anti-Trump vote and Biden won. In 2024, Republicans turned out some more low-propensity toxic male voters and won. But, right now in 2026, no one is happy with the state of American politics and where the country is going.
Switch the Party in Charge
Historically, when the country is heading in the wrong direction, voters turn out and put the other party in charge. Let’s run through some famous switcheroos.
In 1980, we went from Carter to Reagan because of stagflation and Reagan bribing the Iranians to hold on the hostages until after he was elected. In 1992, we preferred Clinton over Poppy because the economy, stupid! In 2008, we went with Obama over McCain because the Great Recession.
What about the other elections? Well, when SCOTUS elected W over Gore, there were other issues besides the economy. No one remembers what they were now other than Gore being prissy over being too closely associated with Clinton and hanging chads, though. And, when we made the pivot from Obama to Trump in 2016, the economy was good, so we rejected Clinton because misogyny.
See how that worked? When the economy was bad, we switched parties in charge. 1980, 1992, 2008. When the economy was still good, other issues guided the election like 2000 and 2016. What happened in 2020 and 2024, then?
We elected Biden over Trump in 2020 because Trump fucked up the #COVID19 pandemic response and plunged us all into a hellscape of death, unemployment, and inflation. Otherwise, he was too much of a chaotic corrupt mess to carry on with. We went back to Trump in 2024 because inflation had peaked and was coming down and Biden so old.
In both the 2020 and 2024 elections, the economy was bad. They were change elections, but no one is happy with how that’s working out.
Politics is Broken and Ever’body is Pissed Off
Our two rules, vote for the party you identify with and switch when the economy is bad, haven’t rescued us from the existential threat we feel breathing down our collective neck. That means we may have to think, which is something no one really wants to do, so we’re PISSED!
The American electorate — which isn’t my very smart refined reflective readers — is having a temper tantrum worthy of Trump himself. We are doing the equivalent of screed posting on social media.
WHAT DO WE DO NOW??!!??
Now, we are voting for anyone who is promising not to do politics as usual, which means Democratic Socialists start looking pretty good. It means that folks who seem to know the local issues, like Spanberger and Sherrill did in Virginia and New Jersey, respectively, get votes.
Desperate times call for desperate measures. In a two party system where neither party is seen as capable of steering the country back on course, it’ll be a huge anti-incumbancy wave. It’ll be a feeding frenzy of knee-jerk voting for a candidate just because they’re anti-establishment and an outsider.
There are all kinda signs and omens out there showing that the Democrats are expected to win BIGGLY in the mid-terms and even take back the Senate! But don’t hold your breath or bet the House on it.
The special elections! The generic congressional ballot! They all favor Dems! Right, they do. But, the special elections were a year ago, which is a long time ago in politics, and a lot of bullshit has passed since then. The generic congressional ballow favors Democrats by 6.3%. That’s a lot, right?
The Generic Congressional Polling Average
The FiftyPlusOne polling average shows the Democrats have a lead of 5.2 percent over the Republicans. The Silver Bulletin’s average has the lead at 6.3% down from a high of 7%. MSNOW projects that a five point lead would yield an eight to eighteen seat swing and a ten point lead, fifteen to twenty-five seats.
For comparison, let’s look at the outcome for the 2018 and 2022 mid-terms elections. In 2018, Trump was paying pee-hookers to piss on the Constitution and Resolute Desk in the Oval, the Tea Party had transitioned to the Freedumb Cockups and the Senate remained McConnell’s fuck puppet. The country was in utter chaos with aircraft carrier groups completely lost at sea, Muslims being banned and then not banned then banned again. We were a flailing ugly mess coasting on the Women’s Pussyhat March success. Remember? It was the first of many take out country back elections that well didn’t quite take our country back. We gained forty-one seats in the House but Senate Republicans EXPANDED their majority by two seats. The Democrats won the election by 8.6%.
In the 2022 midterms, the Republicans won the House by 2.7% and gained nine seats, but the Democrats expanded their majority in the Senate by one whole seat — Thanks John Fetterman!
The points being that (a) we should be doing at least as well as we were in 2018, (b) why are we losing ground? and (c) with the gerrymandering and SCOTUS gutting of the Voting Rights Act, we can’t be sure what will happen.
The only thing that is clear is that the electorate is angry and scared. Our weather has gone completely crazy, diseases are rampant across the US, inflation is up, employment is down, the war crimes are a definite maybe, and corruption is everywhere. The old ways of dealing with a world gone mad clearly are not working. The only thing that we can be sure of is that electorate is out for blood. They need someone to blame for the mess they elected, and it can’t be them! That leaves incumbents and the establishment. They’re looking for someone who can bring some stability to our economy and world and limp the shipwreck of state into a safe harbor. Will it be the Democrats who do so?
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This image was found on UPR and has a Creative Commons license.
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I have been speculating about the possibility that if Trump can spend the next few months making things even worse for the GOP, there would be enough lame duck Republicans in the House and Senate ready to blame him for the defeat and join a bipartisan impeachment and removal in the lame duck session. That would be much better than a straight party line action in January.
I also got to thinking about whether we are seeing a Blue Wave, or an Anti-Incumbent Wave. I think the answer may depend on which demographic group you ask.
The price of oil is going up again with no end of the dueling blockades game in sight.
Will I be able to listen to that speech without suffering permanent brain damage?
Howdy Bob!
One big question is will anyone tune into the speech? Will any of the networks actually carry it live? Okay, it will be carried by all the networks and CNN. Maybe MS NOW will have a live commentary on it? The country certainly feels out of control with McConnell, Graham, the ICE shootings, the war crimes in Iran worsening, and inflation continuing to be high and hiring low.
It would make sense for an alliance between lame duck Republicans and Democrats to form to return some sanity to our politics, but given how erratic Cassidy has been in his “opposition” to Trump and Collins limiting her opposition to being concerned and occasionally very concerned, I don’t know how realistic that fantasy is.
Hopefully, most networks will try to do some live fact checking of the speech. It is likely to be a complete circus, though.
Huzzah!
Jack
I haven’t done an actual survey, but it seems that for most of the (left leaning) registered as Independent I know, being able to choose which primary election ballot they will vote. But they tend to be thinkers, not the “maybe I’ll vote this time” type of folk who call themselves “independent”.
We are in a “Throw the bums out.” mood. The DSA might be as close as we come this time to an actual third party. There does not seem to be one on the conservative side.
Then, I observe that The Orange Poop Merchant still has a bit less than 4 months and some unknowable number of opportunities to make things even worse for Republicans and incumbents in general before the election.
And the young people are very pissed off at the entire grey haired Establishment.
So, what will spur on the “almost never” voters? Anger and fear.
Howdy Bob!
Add into the already chaotic and Quixotic mix Trump’s Thursday night address to the nation, and god knows what will come out of it. Hopefully, it will be so unhinged that it will turn most of the electorate decidedly against him, but that is just my hope.
I don’t think that railing against the 2020 election and declaring the Georgia senators illegitimate will sway many voters to his side. For everything they are or aren’t, both Warner and Ossoff are popular and well liked by the left. I doubt whatever “evidence” he “presents” during the speech will be sufficient to rouse the nation to action against the usurpers unless it convinces the populace that he needs to be removed from office.
The system of primary voting has incentivized the move to registering as independent just for the flexibility of voting in either primary, which leaves us with the “learners” who have not really thrown over their party identity or loyalties. The true independents really are low-information low-propensity voters who are rarely roused to action — a true measure of the effectiveness of Trump’s speech will be how many of them are aroused to action by it and which action, support or opposition.
You get the feeling that things are coming to a head with the mid-terms.
Huzzah!
Jack
Wherever he starts the speech he will wander into chaotic recitation of his many grievances and conspiracy fantasies, and claims of greatness and invincibility. Whatever “evidence” against the senators he claims will be either already multiply debunked, or of that same type.
Because Donald is crooked as a mountain road and dirty as a sewer rat, he presumes that so is everyone else, and so if you keep digging long enough you will find something incriminating.
And now, the Iranians say they can and will stop all oil getting out of the Middle East. They know what hurts him.
He’s angry and scared. Angry that the Iranians won’t bend to his will and scared he’ll lose the midterms and see impeachment and investigations cutting into his grift. Lucky for us, Trump can be relied upon to screw things up when they matter most to him. He’ll overreach with whatever claims of evidence he thinks he has — he has the paper ballots from Fulton County, so he’ll claim something from that — but they have the copies and they’ve been certified, counted, and recounted. It might convince the base, but it won’t go far for the rest of us. Hopefully, it will astonish the wishy-washy one third of us that keeps getting snowballed by him that he’s unfit.
Huzzah!
Jack
We all have, some sort of a, “faithfulness” to the political parties we, identify, with, and, when the candidates don’t, “perform” as well as, we expect them to, we feel, let down, and, eventually, when we get disappointed, enough number of times, we vote the, other way, and, we still get, let down, because the “other party”, also, can’t, perform, up to our, standards, and, we get, stuck in the, misbelief of, something will change, when, it’s this, either/or party belief, that had us, trapped. What is MALFUNCTIONING, is the, SYSTEMS that we are, living under, and, if we can’t, don’t, or won’t change the, systems of bipartisanship, we will ALWAYS end up with, disappointment toward how our governments are, RUINING, all our, lives to the, GROUND, because we are always, left with the choice of, THE LESSER of, TWO, evils, and, history had, already, PROVEN this, we just, hadn’t, learn the lessons, because that, IS, how, STUPID, we humans, are!
Howdy Taurus!
The American system of democracy is failing right now because the people elected to office are not behaving democratically, especially Republicans. The heart of democracy is compromise between the competing view points on any issue. That compromise tends to produce centrist positions on most issues. Democracy has served the American people pretty well over the years. We ended slavery — a little late, but better late than never, right? We lifted our elderly out of poverty. We’ve curbed childhood hunger. We’ve provided near universal vaccination and literacy. We’ve funded incredible research and development across fields of study.
Trump and the Republicans are openly working to end democracy now in the US. They are sabotaging our institutions and ending our norms. They will succeed if we let them. They are doing it by appealing to the bases instincts and stoking fear and hatred, which has found fertile ground in America.
Democracy works only when voters make it work. They make it work by holding the elected to account with their votes. That’s the lesson America has missed.
Blog On, Sibling!
Jack
I have been ranting about the independent thing for decades….there are very few of us….this country needs to break its addiction to these 2 parties…..party politics is what got us here…..I see that Donny is trying to criminalize the DSA….a typical move for a fascist. chuq
Howdy Chuq!
I agree. Neither party is serving us particularly well, but no one seems willing to put in the very hard work and take the very substantial risk of starting a new party. If any of the Never Trump ex(?)-Republicans were serious, they would start a new party. Instead they are just grifting off the liberal media and waiting for Trump to pass so they can return to continue their old grift, which tells you that there is entirely too much money in our politics. We need to overturn Citizens United, which the Democrats, at least, seem willing to do. Hopefully, Trump’s Thursday night speech will be unhinged enough to turn all but the hardcore against him.
Blog On, Sibling!
Jack
Jack I am not sure that mainstream Dems are that against Citizens United…..they made lots of cash in donations from it. chuq
And that tells you all you need to know about why United needs to be overturned, but may not be. Of course if the DSA gets a majority…