Election 2020: Handicapping the Nomination: What do Risk and Uncertainty Tell Us?


Reading time: 5 minutes
Okay, it’s a bit long in the tooth, but it’s worth it to figure out whose gonna win, right? My predictions have a history of being accurate. Stop laughing. I’m serious.

Anywho, I go through and discuss each of the top four candidates chances using behavioral economics decision making under uncertainty, specifically focused on how people react to perceived risk. If there were ever a risk election, brother this would be it. This is a high risk election.

Trump vs. Obama: a new theory of why Republicans and Democrats fight – Vox


A re-blogging of an interview of March Hetherington by Exra Klein on Vox.com. They discuss Hetherington and Weiler’s theory that the political divide between Repubes and Dems is based on how each side views the world. The Repubes view the world as fundamentally dangerous, the Dems as safer. I add that makes Repubes risk averse and Dems risk tolerant. Let me know what you think in the comments.

Predictions, Pundits, and the 2016 Election: The “Are You Happy Now?” Edition


How you viewed the condition of the country probably determined your vote. If you saw the country as doing OKAY, you probably saw the Ol’ Pussy Grabber as too big of a risk. But if you saw the country has going in the wrong direction, you were tempted to take a chance on the Ol’ Pussy Grabber. What does behavioral economics, loss aversion, and risk seeking tell us about 2018?