Will Trump’s Federal Indictment Lead to Another Insurrection or Just Impotent Rhetorical Flailing?

We all know that the most significant characteristic, feature, flaw, whatever about Trump is that he is an extreme narcissist. When you’re trying to understand or predict his behavior, start and end with narcissism. His narcissism buggers the question, now that Trump is facing serious federal charges with the promise of even more coming and from that horrible special prosecutor who just stared at him the entire time during his arraignment — Hadn’t his mother ever taught him that it was impolite to stare? Apparently not. Raised in a barn, that one — how will he react? Will he try to have a 6 January Insurrection Redux? Or some kind of Prigozhin march for truth and justice on DC? Who knows, right?

Here at Ye Olde Blogge, we pride ourselves on being able to apply what we know and come up with reasonable predictions. Before we reveal what the psychology crystal ball foretells, let’s set the stage with a quick review of narcissism, narcissistic injury, and narcissistic collapse, since many people are pointing to the possibility of collapse.

Narcissistic Personality Disorder

One of the key features of narcissistic personality disorder (NPD) is a grandiose sense of self. Narcissists puff themselves up like some proud tom turkey just before Thanksgiving and tell themselves that the attention and adoration they’re getting is because they are so good at being a turkey. Everybody loves a turkey, right?

Narcissists believe to their soul’s that they are the be-bestest person that gawd or anybody else ever put among us and that they can do no wrong. If something goes badly, it is always somebody else’s fault, not theirs. They don’t need no one or no thing. They deserve all of the things, and no one else does, including being exempt from following all rules and laws. Their unique specialness entitles them to privileged treatment. Everything in the world should be bent to their needs.

They do not acknowledge the needs of others because they lack empathy. There is no human connection between the narcissist and the rest of the humanity.

As this tom turkey is strutting his stuff round the barnyard garnering all the admiration and attention from all the hens and farmers and whatnot, something is bound to happen that pricks that inflated facade allowing a rapid deflation and a challenge to that delusion of perfection. What happens then?

Narcissistic Injury

When the narcissists grandiosity is challenged, they receive a narcissistic injury. The bloated ego is wrapped around a void of self-esteem. Without their narcissistic grandiosity, they aren’t anything. Literally. At least, according to their minds.

When they feel that their sense of perfection and superiority is about to be exposed as something less than transcendent, they feel vulnerable, angry, or shame. This state is called a narcissistic injury.

When this state is activated, narcissists typically lash out at whatever or whoever criticized, rejected, or challenged them. Rage, aggression, and violence can result. But, so can victimhood, withdrawal, and denial or minimization of what the insult was.

Some of these ego challenging insults can be much more sever than others. What happens when their entire world is rocked with a magnitude eleven earthquake? What happens when critics turn it up to eleven?

Narcissistic Collapse

Narcissistic collapse describes the narcissist’s response to a severe narcissistic injury, one that their usual coping mechanisms cannot manage. Usually, an undeniable loss or failure triggers the wholesale collapse of their ego, resulting in deep depression, extreme anxiety, or complete demoralization.

To cope with this unique situation, narcissists often turn to very harmful and destructive behaviors. They can be completely out of control, desperate. Their possible responses can be extremely aggressive, hostile, or violent. However, they can also become extremely depressed and withdrawn, too. Often they turn to self-destructive behaviors like substance abuse or indulging in behaviors that put their lives and those of others at risk. In a word, they are out of control.

Trump’s History of Narcissistic Injuries

We’ve seen Trump in dire straits before, like when he lost the 2020 election. Looking at how he reacted to that loss can tell us a lot about how he’s going to react to this one. Here’s where the analysis of Ye Olde Blogge departs from those of many others, we need to begin our analysis with his pre-2016 and pre-2020 election behavior.

Pre-Failure Excuse Making

Throughout the 2016 and 2020 campaigns, he had warned his supporters that the election was being rigged against him. In 2016, he didn’t expect to win. He needed to ease the inevitable injury to his ego by establishing that the only way he lost is if the other side cheated.

Since every accusation is confession, we can reasonably conclude that Trump cheated to win the 2016 election, even though, he really didn’t want to win or expect to.

He did the same thing in the 2020 campaign. There was probably a bit of magical thinking going on there in that if it worked in 2016, it would work in 2020. Fortunately, lightening didn’t strike twice, or at least Putin didn’t.

He’s already begun choking that chicken again before the 2024 election. This pre-failure excuse making is instructive: When he’s risking a very public failure, he lays the groundwork for blaming someone else in order to cushion the blow of failure and dampen the severity of the narcissistic wound.

He’s pre-empting a guilty verdict by accusing Smith of being politically motivated in order to stop him from winning in 2024.

Unfortunately, his 2020 narcissistic wound wasn’t dampened. It was a very traumatic loss. This strategy doesn’t work. A guilty verdict is likely to result in the same kind of rage.

The Narcissistic Injury of 2020

After losing the 2020 election, Trump famously led a violent insurrection. Here’s the thing, Trump wanted the insurrection. He hinted at it publicly and probably asked for it specifically privately, but he didn’t organize it. We know this because Trump lacks the executive functioning to organize anything that complex, just look at his classified documents scandal. He organized the effort to defy the subpoena and keep those documents. That is the ceiling of his organizational effort, so we know other people organized insurrection for him. Other people who were attracted to him because he wielded real power then, as in the power of the pardon and the politicized weaponized DoJ.

He is squawking the same song now as he was then, only he don’t have no Steve Bannon or Roger Stone or even a Rudy Giuliani around him no more. He’s got no more militia leaders because they are all in prison, awaiting sentencing, or about to go on trial. All he’s got is a former navy steward, Saltine Nada or whatever his name is, moving boxes.

Whatever planning apparatus he’d need is now been flushed down the shitter. It ain’t there no more.

The takeaway here is that his chief way of lashing out post 2020 election narcissistic injury has been removed. So, what does he have left?

Post-Indicament

Since his New York City indicament came along, he’s been on the “campaign” trail serving up his usual bluff and bluster about the evils of the Democrat’s which is all just projection, to be clear.

We saw him in the Fox News Brett Baier interview. He was flailing and could barely articulate a phrase much less a sentence. Baier had him tied in knots.

We saw him on the social medias spewing incoherent impotence about being wronged by the prosecution and demanding that his Republicans in Congress protect him by investigating the special counsel.

He’s predicted violence if he was indicted, but all we’ve seen is a few ragged protesters on the streets near the courthouses where he’s been arraigned.

What’s Next for Trump

He’ll frantically proclaim his innocence and make outlandish excuses about why he defied the valid federal subpoena and keep those documents from the US government. He’ll continue vomiting his word salad about his particular white narcissistic grievance of persecution and unfair treatment. His excuses, jactations, and proclamations will become more shrill and frantic and outlandish as the stress and strain of his trail increase.

The thing about Trump is that his narcissism will keep him believing that victory is just around the corner. He KNOWS that Judge Aileen Cannon will rule in his favor. He KNOWS that the Justice Department will finally see the light and drop the charges. He KNOWS that MAGA will come to its senses and organize a revolution on his behalf. He KNOWS that an exception will be made for him that everyone will go to extraordinary lengths to see that he is exonerated and his former status is restored. He KNOWS these things because he’s a narcissist.

Throughout his once and future trials, he’ll suffer narcissistic injury, but he’s fate will never be so certain as to warrant narcissistic collapse. The judicial system just moves too slowly for him to notice that he is likely to be found guilty. He will always have time to return to equilibrium and re-inflate his tattered facade of perfection — at least in his mind.

You should become concerned if he starts getting chummy with someone who is capable of organizing violence, someone like Roger Stone or heads of militias or someone like that. They and by they I mean Trump and his Congressional allies will stoke stochastic terrorism. There’s not much to be done to stop the unhinged from committing random acts of violence.

Image Attribution

“Sad Limp Sausages” by missbossy is licensed under CC BY 2.0.