SUMMARY: In the upcoming 2024 election, the battle between Democrats and Republicans revolves around competing narratives of risk and loss. Democrats aim to safeguard democracy by warning of the destructive consequences of a Republican victory, highlighting the threat to democratic values and institutions. On the other hand, Republicans utilize propaganda techniques and accuse their opponents of the very actions they themselves are engaging in. By smearing their opponents and presenting a doomsday scenario, Republicans attempt to diminish the perceived inevitable loss that comes with their own policies. Ultimately, the choice for voters lies between the truth and votes, to punch a Nazi with democratic participation.”
KEY TERMS: Punch a Nazi Election, Risk and Loss, Risk Aversion, Behavioral Economics, Safeguarding Democracy, Hitler’s Propaganda Playbook, Projection, Voting
We’ve had a long proud history of characterizing elections here at Ye Olde Blogge, and Election 2024 we’ve christened the Punch a Nazi Election. We hasten to add that we don’t mean to literally punch a Nazi a la Indiana Jones on the wing of anachronistic Nazi airplane in Raiders of the Lost Arc; we mean to punch a Nazi with votes.
Behavioral Economics and the Risk-Averse Nature of People
Our election characterizations heavily rely on the principles of behavioral economics, specifically the observation that individuals generally avoid taking risks unless confronted with an inevitable loss. How does this dynamic come into play in 2024?
At the moment, our political landscape is embroiled in a tug-of-war between perceptions of risk and certain loss.
Democrats’ Message: Safeguarding Democracy
Democrats must foster the message that Republicans will destroy our democracy if they win majorities in Congress and, especially, if they win the White House. Regardless of whether it’sTrump, Nikki Haley, Chris Christie, or Liz Cheney as the nominee, a Republican administration would further erode the foundations of our democracy. If for no other reason than they will continue appointing anti-democratic Federalist Society justices. All of them put their personal and party needs before those of the democracy.
The litmus test of someone being a Nazi in 2024 America is membership in the Republican Party? If nine fascists dine together and someone joins them, then there are ten fascists at the table. Liz Chaney has not left the Republican Party. She voted with Trump 93% of the time before they drubbed her out of Congress. She just had the good sense to recognize that the insurrection was too much of a threat to the continued Republican plan for a permanent majority.
Don’t at me in the comments claiming that Liz Chaney’s book proves she is a good person. She’s doing like all the other reprobates and hangers on of the Trump years, she’s flogging a book and pretending that makes her a pro-democracy anti-Trumper. The only thing she’s doing is trying to rehab her reputation enough so that she can be the first American fascist president.
Republicans’ Message: Both Sides are the Same, so You Lose Either Way but We Offer You Naked Unbridled Racism!
On the Republican side, two strategies come into play. First, they emphasize the sense of certain loss that would come with a Biden-Democrat victory, employing assorted racist and anti-immigrant tropes, recycled Republican rhetoric surrounding the economy, debt, and immigration. Their argument centers around a doomsday scenario awaiting us if Biden and the Democrats win, encouraging voters to take a chance on four more years of Trump and a Republican Congress aligned with the Republican Supreme Court.
The argument being that if Biden and the Democrats win in 2024, the world will surely end, so to avoid that 100% certain fate, you’d better take a chance on four more years of Trump and a Republican Congress joining with the Republican SCOTUS.
And second, they are trying to reduce the sense of inevitable loss should Trump and Republicans win. They realize that the electorate view Republican victories as a sure loss of their rights and democracy, just look at the outcome of the 2023 off-year elections. The erosion of reproductive freedoms, marriage equality, and trans rights, coupled with brazen displays of racism, are all specters haunting the electorate. We know that open naked racism will used by Republicans once in office. becauseTrump keeps saying the quiet part out loud:
- “This guy [Hannity], he says, ‘You’re not going to be a dictator, are you? I said, ‘No, no, no — other than Day 1.’” Tengrain over on Mock Paper Scissors.
- Promising to round up and detain millions of immigrants in camps across the country.
- I am your retribution, as he promises to weaponize the administration against his prosecutors and detractors.
Those promises sound like we would lose important American values and traditions to most voters, and they will likely scare the bejeezus out of white suburban voters that, if you’d just tone it down a touch, would probably meh all the way to voting straight Republican.
Republican Use of Hitler’s Propaganda Playbook: Accuse Your Opponent of Doing What You’re Doing
How do you take the certainty of losing our rights and democracy out of the promises Republicans are making? You take a page out of the Hitler Propaganda Playbook and accuse your opponent of doing exactly what you’re doing. In a recent speech, Trump read from the teleprompter saying that Biden was “not the defender of American democracy. Joe Biden is the destroyer of American democracy, and it’s him and his people that think they can do whatever they want, break any law, tell any lie, ruin any life, trash any norm, and get away with anything they want.”
The effect of smearing your opponent with the same tarry brush that you’ve painted yourself in is to take away the sure loss. It doesn’t matter who you vote for, you’re gonna lose your democracy. There is no risk that you can take to avoid it, so just lay back and enjoy it, as they say.
Lest you thinks that (a) it is only Trump trying to project his id onto Biden and the Democrats or (b) that it would never work, Jenn Psaki reported that in a recent poll 60% of voters thought that Biden was aware of and maybe involved in Hunter Biden’s businesses and 62% were concerned about Trump’s civil and criminal cases! By equating the two, Trump’s criminality and Republican support for it no longer seems like a risk that can be avoided.
To Neutralize Republican Rhetoric, Make the Choice Clear
In essence, Election 2024 boils down to a choice. On one hand, Biden and the Democrats present a promise of business as usual, flawed as it may be, with occasional genocidal acts, support for repressive dictators, and systemic racism. On the other hand, Trump and the Republicans seek to impede progress, stifling any hope of forging a more perfect union unless their version entails swift wealth transfer to the top 1% and the establishment of an apartheid state. The critical task lies in reminding the electorate that even if Republicans drape their platform in gold, it remains fundamentally flawed. In the face of such a choice, punching a Nazi equates to wielding truth and votes.
The only question is, can the Republicans gild their turd with enough gold to get us to vote for it. The only way to keep that from happening is to keep reminding people that when you gild a turd, you still have a turd. In other words, you should always punch a Nazi with truth and votes.
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Image Attribution
Okay, okay, I stole this image. It’s been around enough that it probably won’t put me on a lower circle of hell than I’m already going to, but if anyone has objections to me using it here, please let me know and I’ll remove it. I tried to get AI to recreate it, but nope. Anywho, here’s where I stole it from.
The Psy of Life 
I’m trying to think of something to add to this. Behavioral Economics is so useful in making things clear in how to frame decisions, I think you nailed it.
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Howdy Bob!
With all the doom and gloom going on about Trump’s polling numbers, it is easy to forget that they are the party of my way or the highway as demonstrated by the performative storming out of the briefing on Ukraine aid in the SCIF by Republican senators and the party of take it away with their plans to repeal and forget the ACA, privatize social security, delay retirement, end reproductive rights and options, but oh, they will give us concentration camps.
All that red meat may fire up the BBQ grills of the base, but no one new will come to the party. They’re singing to their own choir infernal. The elections in Ohio, Kentucky, and Virginia pretty much seal the deal. They’re going to try and smear Biden and the Dems with their sins, but I just don’t see it working.
Huzzah!
Jack
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And, there are more hits to the stolen election lie, with the fake electors in Nevada indicted by a grand jury, and those in Wisconsin admitting that they were lying and that Biden won fair and square in the settlement of a civil suit, and agreeing not to serve a electors ever again.
Telling people in detail what they will, what is promised and planned, that they will loose if the GOP takes power, that it isn’t just Trump, has to be steady and loud. I was surprised in a recent conversation with a friend who is very politically active and aware and solid Blue, that when I mentioned Agenda 2025, she didn’t know what it is and who is behind it. BTW, the Koch Network wouldn’t be funding Niki Haley if she wasn’t signed on to it.
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Howdy Bob!
In the next year, I don’t think there will be any shortage of Trump misdeeds in the news. I think most people’s opinions of Trump are baked in at this point. One of the interesting questions is whether the Republicans can drive Biden’s approval rating so low that they will compete with Trump’s. It is kind of the same strategy they used on Hillary, but on steroids. I guess they tried it in 2020, but Biden seemed immune or no one could be driven that low.
Luckily, not only is the economy showing signs of improving — cue government shutdown and any other way of tanking the economy or distracting from it — and people are beginning to notice! Republicans are going to be working overtime to continue negative news about Biden and causing real harm to real people in the process. I do wonder whether the investigation into Hunter Biden is as legit as they say it is. I wonder whether an inspector-general inquiry into the special counsel might reveal some motivation other than without fear or favor.
Still, Biden is a pretty savvy campaigner and politician. We’ve got a year of drama ahead of us in foreign, domestic, and legal policy. I think the chances of a Democratic victory are stronger than most people do.
Huzzah!
Jack
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I think you’re right. I notice that the MSM are finally getting past some false equivalency and starting to de-normalize Trump. Liz Cheney, for all her conservative faults, seems to have made them deal with what Trump would actually do if elected, and cleared the path for others who know him well to speak up.
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Publicity works. It drives clicks, likes, and shares. I guess I should be “grateful” that she’s helping people focus on the threat that Trump poses to our democracy.
If someone is a serious anti-Trumper, they should be laying plans to make a new conservative party because the Republican brand cannot be rehabilitated. And, openly and actively campaigning for Biden and the Democrats. None of this, I don’t know what I’ll do or who I’ll vote for that we’ve seen from so many Republicans, including Chaney. At least, she has campaigned and supported Democratic candidates and says she would vote for Biden if the choice is Trump. But, what she doesn’t say is that everyone must vote straight Democratic up and down the ballot because no Republican can be trusted to hold office and defend the Constitution.
Huzzah!
Jack
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Somebody should ask Liz what she thinks of Agenda 2025. After all, that is what it means now to be a Republican candidate for any Federal level office, and it not about Trump. He is just the most blatant and openly disgusting example. Another Republican elected would likely not indulge in the festival of personal vengeance that Trump promises, but the core agenda would be the same.
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