SUMMARY: The 2024 election will be heavily influenced by status quo bias. It explains Trump’s lead in the Republican primary, the reluctance of Trump challengers to attack him, and the lack of criticism from Republican Party leaders. It also explains Biden’s poor polling and lackluster enthusiasm by his base. However, the unconventional nature of this election gives us hope that our desire to maintain our status as a democracy will carry the day.
KEY WORDS: Election 2024, status quo bias, Republican primary, polling, third-party voting, unconventional election, incumbency, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, third party, not voting
COMMENT: What do you think are the issues that will determine the outcome of election 2024? Let’s try to interpret them using status quo bias in the comments!
We have a bias towards maintaining the status quo aptly named status quo bias. The status quo is safe. The reasoning goes if the way we’re doing things didn’t hurt us yesterday, it won’t hurt us today, and it won’t hurt us tomorrow, so why change it now? We prefer things to stay the same. Same is safe.
The devil you know and all that.
It’s been found empirically by several disciplines. Political scientists found it in incumbency bias. We all know it is difficult to beat an incumbent because people are reluctant to change. Behavioral economists call it risk aversion: we hate change, but will take a chance to avoid a sure loss.
The Effects of Status Quo Bias on the Election
Understanding the Republican Primary
Just understanding this one simple facet of human nature allows us to understand and predict most election. For example, it explains why I2I4 is running away with the Republican primary: he’s the de facto incumbent. Republicans had their chance to defeat Trump both in the 2020 election and in the second impeachment and failed to do so. If they were going to do it, they were going to do it then. That McCarthy, McConnell, the Republican Congress, and the rank and vile MAGA voter didn’t shit can him then, tells you how much change just scares the bejeezus out of us, or that they really really want us to buy what Trump is selling. Even Trump’s losing electoral track record couldn’t convince McCarthy and McConnell — two craven political animals — to take their opportunity to put an end to Trump’s reign of error over the Republican Party.
If MAGA Republicans view I2I4 as an incumbent, the disinterested disaffected disengaged occasional voter probably does, too. To every liberal political junkie, he is a wannabe fascist authoritarian hoping to gut, stuff, and mount our democracy on the wall of Merde a Lardo like it was a trophy of an endangered species brought home by Don-Don and Ewick on one of their luxury pampered guaranteed big game hunting expeditions. However, most voters probably don’t view it that way.
Most voters probably take past as prologue and think that because the democracy didn’t end the first time around with him, it probably won’t a second time, either. By achieving status quo status in the eyes of the “meh” majority, he has insulated himself from political accountability for his misdeeds from 2016 to the present.
Understanding Status Quo Bias and its Effects on Polling
The status quo bias also helps us understand recent polling. The respondents are considering their options. When asked to choose four more years of Biden, they think of all the negative economic news, the quagmire that Ukraine seems to have become and he slaughter going on in Gaza, and the smear campaign against Hunter Biden, and think, maybe not, maybe making a change is worth the risk.
All the negative emotions surrounding Biden make him seem more like a sure loss if re-elected, which makes Trump seem like a more viable alternative. This is true even though most of the negativity is due to conservative news outlets framing everything in the worst possible light. That is the illusion of truthiness. If you hear something once, no matter how false or outrageous it is, you’re more likely to believe the next time you hear it.
The other factor making I2I4 seem more worth the risk of changing mid-incumbency is the mainstream media framing the election as a run-of-the-ill garden-variety horse race between two equally qualified candidates instead of the Squid Games death match for our democracy that it is.
How Status Quo Bias Increases the Risk of Third Party Voting or Couch Surfing During the Election
Another view that many voters may take, however, is that Trump is a sure loss, too. They remember the chaos and confusion that he wrought. They hear his racist violent rhetoric now. They blame him for the abortion and anti-LGBTQ+ laws sweeping the nation and conclude that he’s not a risk they’re willing to take. He’s a sure loss, too.
If both Biden and Trump are both viewed as sure losses, then voters begin casting about for a third option. This is an important point. Should the election continue to be framed as it is, a portion of the electorate will be more likely to take a chance with one of their other two options: stay home and not vote or vote for a third party candidate.
If that happens, it would be a disaster since it would only take a percentage or two of the vote in the battleground states for Trump to win. We know that Republican dark money is behind both Robert Kennedy Jr’s and the No Labels’ effort to get on the ballot in all fifty states, so it seems like conservative billionaires are thinking the same things.
Conventional Wisdom does not Apply to an Unconventional Election: Reasons for Hope
While no incumbent president has won reelection with as poor approval rating as Biden has now, we are living in unprecedented times.
- No incumbent president has ever run against such a proven fascist authoritarian who is under felony indictment for an insurrection and having stolen state secrets.
- No other incumbent president has run for reelection after the Supreme Court took away a seventy year old right and is threatening to take away more rights.
- No other incumbent president is running against a likely opponent, whose primary challengers are doing so little to drive up his negatives. A serious primary campaign often leaves the winner damaged, this Republican primary isn’t doing that to Trump. In fact, it seems to be doing the opposite.
As we go through this year, we shouldn’t panic if the usual horse race rules aren’t working in our favor since this isn’t your usual horse race for the presidency no matter how hard the mainstream press wants to make it into one. We’ve been down this road before in 2018, 2020, and 2022. As the pressure on Trump increases the more volatile, shrill, and outlandish his rhetoric becomes, the more he alienates swing voters. The questions are will they turn out in 2024, and if they do, will they vote Biden and the Democrats?
Biden and the Democrats must hammer home the message that we need to return to our democratic norms and roots. It is a difficult message to convey through the chaos and anger that I2I4 and the Republican Party wield as a cudgel against us, but it is the winning message. It frames us as the status quo and all other options as not only change, but also, a sure loss of our rights and civil liberties.
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Image Attribution
This image was generated using Poe’s StableDiffusionXL bot using the prompt, A film noir style image of a “meh” voter passing Biden, Trump, and third party posters
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Categories: Cognitive Psychology
The Psy of Life 
Pandering to the amygdala has been the Republican playbook all along. They will be pushing their xenophobic and racist “open border” hysteria, BLM/crime hysteria, drag queen hysteria, and the rest of their closet of hobgoblins.
I hope Democrats have advisors and campaigns that are bold in trying Trump in the court of public opinion.
Democrats need to appeal to actual threats of lost freedom and democracy to counter their usual bigotry and authoritarianism. Forced births for pregnant 10-year-olds and women charged with manslaughter for miscarriages should emphasized as much as images of Trump’s 1/6 coup and ensuing mugshots. The trials will bring more focus on the many indictments and troves of evidence of his crimes. It’s a simple matter of showing his attempts to evade justice and hold himself above the rule of law. Cue “equal justice under law” v immunity by dictatorship.
Show banners of the Colorado Supreme Court judging his actions as insurrection. Show the legal determination he was held accountable for rape.
Show pictures of Russians in Oval Office as Trump spilled state secrets to them. Clips of him praising Putin along with images of the devastation in Ukraine should be run against all Republicans.
They need to hammer on his stated goal of being a dictator planning on purging the government of everyone who doesn’t proclaim fealty to him. Pictures of Stalin and Hitler should be alongside images of him.
Americans SHOULD be afraid of him and his cult. This strategy is sitting there on the platter for the Dems.
The reservoir of materiel is deep and wide.
Dems need to repeat the words “freedom” and “democracy” incessantly, reminding the country of what is at stake.
I think they can do it.
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Yeah, I think most people are not yet experiencing that sinking feeling which I get when I think of 2024 and what might happen. Worse, I’m just not sure that the loss of democracy will be a top issue for voters even later in the year…people tend to vote with their pocketbook and there is a lot of right-wing propaganda out there promoting the idea that Jan. 6th and all the rest of the assault on our democracy is exaggerated. But maybe you’re right that if Trump continues to get crazier and more unhinged, it will finally put some voters off. In a perverse way, the more unhinged he becomes, the better for us, I guess? And, we should never underestimate the continuing power of the Dobbs decision…my experience is that most of my female friends are still angry about it and will vote accordingly…so that might save us.
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Howdy Karolina!
I think Dobbs is the ace in the hole. The question is whether people’s dissatisfaction with Biden for whatever reason will drive them to a third party candidate. That’s clearly the conservative money bet by putting up No Labels, Jill Stein, and Robert Kennedy. I think Trump has a very hard ceiling and he’s not likely to even get as many votes as he did last time. It’s the distribution of votes that matters most.
Unfortunately, 2024 will probably be won or lost by percentage points in the battleground states, and those third party candidates will be pushed hard in those states for just that purpose.
Huzzah!
Jack
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Yes…the No Labels and other third party candidates definitely worry me. We need to spread the word far and wide that they are not a valid option–they are only a vote for Trump.
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Everyone can play a role in that. We have to keep talking about what’s important in this election. Keep our eye on the ball not like 2016 when we collectively blinked.
Jack
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Couldn’t agree more.
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I’m thinking of a quip from Ashleigh Brilliant – “Normal Times are over forever.” In many important ways, in the midst of great change (Trumpian politics, climate change, pandemics, etc.), what version of the status quo (real or imagined) will people cling to? Democratic values and norms can fill that bill. So can a calm, deliberate leader with decades of experience, relationships with other leaders, and a focus on those norms and values.
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Howdy Bob!
I think right now a lot of people are not taking the election “seriously,” as in they aren’t thinking, “How will I feel in November 2024 when I vote?” They are thinking, “How do I feel right now?” Right now they may be pissed off or scared or both because it feels like everything is going to hell in a hand basket, so they think that Joe Biden is doing a terrible job, I’ll vote for Trump or someone else. When its the acid test on 5 November 2024 in the voting booth, people will probably be feeling differently. They won’t be reacting to the same things as they are today because the question they’ll be answering will be different. Then, they’ll be wanting the guy whose normal and like presidents of yore.
Huzzah!
Jack
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While the public focus is still on the “horse race” and gossip, the election remains sportified, and a spectator sport at that, or the strange doings of celebrities. It is in the voting booth that it, for many, finally becomes real and they have to fill in one of those little ovals, just one of the two or three, or four. Until then, when the pollsters ask, it is still hypothetical, and many just want to give quick answers to get off the phone and get back to whatever they were doing. So, can it be made real sooner?
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Howdy Bob!
Part of Trump’s delay his trials plan is to keep the evidence out of the pubic eye. It isn’t just the risk of conviction, it is when the salacious details of the insurrection and theft of secret documents is in the news every night that it really has an effect on the “meh” voter.
Luckily, the negatives on Biden may have already troughed. He probably can’t go much lower. Trump has already reached his ceiling and exceeded it. He can’t get much higher. The issue probably will come down to the same 2016 sentiment that drove a lot of voters: the Democrats need to be taught a lesson for putting up such a poor candidate.
And, just like in 2016 and 2020, the distribution of the vote will matter most.
Huzzah!
Jack
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Sometimes, it can be, if handled well, an advantage to have no direction to go but up and time to do it.
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Biden has defied expectations so far. I expect he will again.
Jack
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He has been doing politics successfully for a long time. Old dogs know tricks the young dogs have yet to learn.
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Yep. It’s fortunate that we have him.
Jack
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