We just had three more primaries: Maryland, Nebraska, and West Virginia.
Did you know? I’m not sure that voters in the states that had the primaries even knew. Since the presidential primaries for both parties were over before they started, there hasn’t been much interest in any of the primaries except amongst the political class and the bothsides political press trying to flog the dead horse race into a dead heat for fun and profit.
The only thing that seems even remotely interesting to report about is the Nikki Haley zombie campaign and Trump protest vote. The bothsides press has tried to tout the Biden protest vote, but given the results of these three elections, that seems to have subsided. Don’t mention the West Virginia vote. You’re talking about the state that elected Joe Manchin to two terms in the Senate.
Here’s the only real insight that you need to take away from these primaries:
- Trump: 80%
- Haley: 20%
- Trump: 79.6%
- Haley: 17.8%
- Trump: 88.4%
- Haley: 9.4%
Why is this so important? Because the people who took the trouble to turn out and vote for Haley in a meaningless state primary in May, will turn out to vote against him when it matters.
One way to predict who will win an election is by looking at whose voters are motivated to go to the polls. Because we make it so difficult to vote, and that’s without all of the GOP’s recent state voter suppression and nullification legislation, it takes motivation to vote.
Four years ago, Ye Olde Blogge posted about how the size and enthusiasm of protests influenced turn out and voting in elections. It turns out there’s a positive correlation between going to a protest and voting. When you think about it, it makes sense.
You go to a protest because you’re enthusiastic about an issue, you want your voice heard, you’ve put effort into the issue by protesting, and you’ve met a lot of other people who feel the same way. It all adds up to making much more likely that you’ll follow through months and even years later to vote on that issue.
The same reasoning can be applied to Haley’s zombie voters. If they didn’t feel strongly about making their opposition to Trump heard, they wouldn’t be out there voting. Because they put that effort into it once, they’re likely to do it again. They are committed. They are enthusiastic.
You read the reporting that these folks can’t quite bring themselves to say that they’ll vote Biden over Trump, so we’ll have to see how they vote in November.
That’s wrong.
They may not vote for Biden in November, but as we learned in 2016, unless you’re voted for the loser (Clinton), you helped Trump win. Voting for Jill Stein or any of the other third party candidates, took your vote away from Clinton. Staying home, took your vote away from Clinton. Even if these protest voters don’t vote for Biden, they ain’t voting for Trump, and in a two-person race, that’s all that matters.
Comment on that.
The Psy of Life 
Calico, I totally agree, those who are interested and active in their state or countries politics are to be admired. Too many in the community don’t give a shit, if it’s not in the sports page or the Late, Late Show, they just don’t care.
Sadly, these same people are the first to whinge when things go bad, ‘after all, it’s all the governments fault’, little do they know, in a Democracy, they are the government.
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I’m more optimistic than that. I don’t think people don’t give a shit, but that they lack the motivation because, as you say, they don’t see the connection between their vote and the government action. The major difference between us, as I understand it, is that Republicans have cynically cultivated this disconnect in order to diminish the voter turnout. And, when we see the turn out in the elections since 2018, we see record-breaking turnout.
Jack
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It is true on both sides of the partisan canyon of this political duopoly system. If you don’t vote for Candidate A then you are voting for Candidate B. It matters not whether the non-vote is for a third party candidate, a “none of the above” if available, leaving that office unmarked on the ballot, or writing in your aunt Edna. Not voting for one is a vote for the other. Voting for “neither” is an illusion. One of the candidates will win unless there is a perfect tie. A non-vote is always a vote for the winner.
So, as long as those Haley voters don’t cave and vote for Trump, they are good news for Biden. But, if they happen to decide that Biden is the lesser evil, we welcome them with open arms.
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It’s hard to predict how this is going to work out. The Haley voters probably wouldn’t vote for a democrat no matter who is running, so if they’re so mad at Trump that they don’t vote at all it would be a plus for Biden.
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That’s my conclusion. The thing is, they are motivated to go out of their way to make their displeasure with Trump heard. It could, by November, to vote for Biden. Not voting or voting third party a la Clinton in 2016 will help Biden.
Huzzah!
Jack
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