The Sudden Ceasefire with Iran
Here’s what I think happened to cause Trump to ceasefire, to enter into a ceasefire agreement that is an agreement in name only. Apparently, each party to the “agreement” the US, Iran, and Pakistan have all agreed to different things. No one actually agreed to the same things at all
Trump is suffering mightily from his ongoing war crime debacle in Iran — Since it is a war fought without legitimate predicate, it s illegal war war, so anything and everything done in the prosecution of the war is a war crime, right? But, because he can’t bully Iran or the hostilities themselves into behaving the way he wants them to, Trump is suffering a self-inflicted narcissistic wound. It is as serious as a real physical wound would be. The man is driving himself insane as his delusional facade of perfection is perforated. And it caused Trump to ceasefire prematurely. Oops!
Trump Attrited First
Trump found himself in the position of having no choice but to find a way of halting hte fighting. His military officers were pushing back against him too forcefully on two fronts. First, they were panicking over the lack of munitions. We had burned through years of stockpiles in a month. We are depleted. The problem is that Iran wasn’t. They were still able to launch ballistic missiles and drones by the dozens and hundreds a day. No matter how many times he said we had destroyed their ability to fight, it wasn’t true. No matter how many times he said we had an infinite amount of high-level weapons to use, we don’t. In a war of attrition, we attrited first. Trump ceasefired,
Trump Couldn’t Saturday Night Massacre his way to Genocide
Then, Trump’s military officers were telling him in no uncertain terms, they would not commit clear war crimes — regardless of the implications of the legality of the war. Murdering helpless men clinging to flotsam was one thing. Leaving sailors from a ship we just sunk to drown was another thing. But, the mass and deliberate bombardment of civilians and infrastructure was a bridge too far. Apparently, the rootin’ tootin’est cowboy, Pistol Pete Kegseth, couldn’t Saturday Night Massacre their way to genocide, so Trump ceasefired.
Even though those are both speculations, they have the thin veneer of truthiness painted over them.
Melania’s Weird Epstein Press Conference
Melania Trump called a press conference that no body wanted or expected to declare that she wasn’t guilty of crimes that no one had ever accused her of committing. Sure there’s that picture of Trump, Melania, Epstein, and Maxwell where she’s looking all glarey at the camera, but no one ever really thought she was in the business of trafficking little girls or participating int heir rape. As much as everyone is having fun speculating freely or should I say fantasizing freely about her sexual exploits on Epstein’s Island, no one’s made a real serious accusation, so Melania press conferenced.
Then, she went on to say that the survivors should be allowed to testify and go on the Congressional record with their stories. Whoa! Blow up Trump’s world, would ya, Melania?
This one is a real ass scratcher. What happened? Why would she ruin Trump’s perfect Epstein distraction of committing war crimes in Iran by bringing up Epstein? Is there a document about to surface somewhere? Did an intrepid reporter call her asking for a response before publishing? Did someone tell her about something they found in the files?
Here’s why I think she press conferenced, even though it is pure speculation. I think she did find some particularly gruesome detail about an atrocious act Trump was involved in. I think they had a big old blow out fight about it. I think the pre-nup prevents her from really doing anything about it, you know like divorcing him, or anything, so she’s doing the next best thing, shooting him in his dick. Melania press conferenced.
Of course, she might could’ve seen her approval rating in a recent poll — the furthest underwater of any First Lady in the history of polling — and concluded that it was because of all of the atrocious graphic sexual speculations of what she did with Epstein, Trump, Maxwell, and the girls that is circulating madly through all of the AI video generators, you know Rule 34 style, so she decided the best thing to do was Streisand Effect it by press conferencing.
How accurate do you think my wild speculation about the motivations behind two of the most inexplicable news events of the week were? Let us know in the comments.
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Melania is an Epstein girl from way back. That’s why she’s with Trump. It’s probably in the files. She’s going down & she knows it.
Howdy Silver!
The most curious thing was Trump’s posting of a video of a woman being violently murdered with a hammer soon after her announcement. It seems to me that that was a direct juxtaposition and threat to her personally. Something spooked her, though. She was very specific in her denials, even oddly specific, about things she has never really been publicly or seriously accused of. She was not a victim of Epstein’s? Does she mean she was trafficked by him? But, he was using the NY modeling scene as a source for his victims, and she was a NY model at that time. No one really ever thought she had been trafficked by Epstein other than Internet trolls, so her repeated and specific denials sounds a lot like the guilty dog barking the loudest to use an old Southern saying.
It does have the feel of something having been found in the files and someone alerting her to its eminent publication. Or, at least possible publication. Her threat of suing anyone who “defames” her, as she’s aggressively done in the past, may have been enough to squash the story for now.
Huzzah!
Jack
Jack, I think your speculations about why the ceasefire have a high probability of being accurate, but you missed one. The stock markets around the world were tanking. Those money people who were not favored enough to get the inside alert to a market moving announcement were begging, some, maybe even threatening to withhold campaign donations, him to stop the thing if that was the only way to open the straight. When Money talks, Donald listens.
Then, he was likely forewarned about the report that was about to come out about the meeting at the Pentagon in which the Pope was threatened, including the suggestion of a policy schism in the Church like the Avignon Papacy. He’s still ignoring that one.
As for Melania, it smells of something cooking on the Epstein front, whether or not it would implicate her, from which she wants to distance herself in advance. My best guess is that unlike her spouse, she does listen to her lawyers. I also think is is a near certainty that while she is the wrong generation to be an Epstein survivor, she is a survivor of someone, or some organization, very much like him (KGB?).
Howdy Bob!
The KGB, her parents, a “modeling” agency? There are a slew of possibilities for people trafficking young women and girls out of Eastern Europe. Clearly, past sexual abuse has affected several of the women closely involved with the Epstein files — Boebert, Greene, and Mace in the House. Why not Melania? Maybe she’d gotten enough distance from the worst of her abuse and become empowered sufficiently to begin standing up to the abusers.
I read earlier today that several oil company executives had been in contact with the White House to correct their misconceptions about how the Strait of Hormuz were affecting their businesses. So, that angle has merit.
Iran is a narcissistic wound. He has to blame someone or something for it and destroy it. Didn’t be surprised if he doesn’t renew agression against Iran at some point in the future. He’s been jonsing to use nukes since his first term, but the military probably wouldn’t do that. That means NATO. We wouldn’t be in this position if NATO had helped us, so it’d their fault.
Nothing good will come out of the Epstein files or the War Crime in Iran.
Huzzah!
Jack
The narcissistic wounds keep coming. Inflation is up. Unemployment is up. Balance of trade deficit is up. The Pope isn’t knuckling under. Everybody he is calling “low IQ” and crazy is hitting back. Bebe is going to sabotage the cease fire if he can. He’s never fully complied with any cease fire anyway. He’s wants Trump back on the attack. The NATO countries are not apologizing. And the Democrats are either winning the special elections or loosing by a lot less than expected. And, the SAVE Act looks dead. I got an email today from The President asking (demanding?) that I sign a petition to pass that monstrosity. That’s is desperation considering I’m a registered Democrat. Whatever is left of Trump’s mind and executive functioning may be dying the death of a thousand cuts.
Howdy Bob!
The pattern from Trump 1.0 continues. When he is under extreme pressure and stress, he behaves much more erratically and outrageously. His anxiety is such that it exacerbates his executive dysfunction and all controls of his behavior are suspended. Such periods of stress and resulting acting out, rewire the brain and generally worsen many physical conditions in the brain and body.
His congestive heart failure is much worse. At the Easter Egg Roll it was reported that his right hand was bandaged and heavily make-upped, suggesting it is worsening and needing more frequent aggressive treatment. When I wrote about the possibility that Trump had dementia many years ago, I noted that the Circle of Willis (collection of arteries in the brain) can be blocked by plaque as well as the heart. It can result in diminished cognitive functioning.
While the Democrats cannot at this time stop him from enacting his horrific destructive policies, they can draw attention to them by putting up legislation that would limit his excesses and run, in part, on the theme of they alone can rein Trump in for his last two years in office and remove him if need be. The slogan of “rein him in” seems to me a winning one. Also, a theme of “Let’s remake government together so that it serves everyone’s needs,” seems like another.
Huzzah!
Jack
“Reining him in” might strike a good note with the swing voters, especially the elder ones who may be becoming anxious about their own future functioning. Reining grandpa in to keep him from wandering feels better then “Lock him up on the Alzheimer’s ward.” Although you and I both know that is exactly what needs to be done about
Trump.
“Remaking government” might not go over so well with the folks who are ;suffering whiplash and head trauma from the remaking that has been happening. The trouble is that “a return to normalcy”, as effective as it was for Biden, might be a “been there, tried that” kind of thing.
On any front, the prognosis for Trump is most likely for further and accelerating decline. On the medical side, any condition developing that noticeably (to him and others) limits his activity and ADL functioning will be another narcissistic wound. He is supposed to be indestructible. In that event, he will be his most possible dangerous, feeling betrayed by the god he does not believe in, and all creation. His threat of cultural genocide against Iran may indicate he is getting there, close to “Burn It All Down.”
Howdy Bob!
Trump is in a box of his own making. He’s the cartoon character who has painted himself into a corner. His health is failing, as you noted, probably faster and more detrimentally than anyone knows. He thinks everyone, even god, will make exceptions for him. The Iranians, the American electorate, our NATO allies, everyone will make an exception. So, Iran should surrender, open the Strait, and split the proceeds of passage fees with him because it’s him. Americans should not blame him or hold him accountable for higher gas prices because it’s him. NATO should help him, not because of the terms of the treaty but because it’s him. As it becomes clear that the exceptions won’t be made or that god won’t give him the Elijah treatment, he would be more than happy to literally destroy the world rather than let anyone else have it. His rage will be incandescent. He’s been itching to use nukes from 20 January 2017. He’d be happy to do it, but the military probably won’t let him, which may be the only saving grace in the whole damn thing.
Huzzah!
Jack
The good thing about the “Football” is that it does not launch anything. It sends orders to the commanders in charge of the weapons. The second best thing about it is that it is carried by a military officer (IDK what rank) who is armed.
There appear to be some in the chain of command at various levels who really are End Times nut cases and would welcome an order to nuke somebody, anybody, but they don”t seem to be top level, but field unit level. I don’t think we have anybody in position to mimic the general in Dr. Strangelove. They appear to have balked at the idea of sending Iran to the Stone Age, or suggested strongly enough through the correct channel that they would.
Knowing the correct channel by which to get through to Trump is important, the question always being, “Who is he listening to today?”
Donny is trying everything to get our attention on something else….this will be a stickler for Israel will not hold to any agreement on ceasefire and then Iran will pull back….this could be just a lull. cfhuq
Howdy Chuq!
I’ve been as guilty as the next guy in believing the distraction theory of Trump, but just today, I began to question that. I’m starting to consider that Trump is just impulsive and he just jumps from one crisis to another and if there isn’t a crisis or two, he creates one. He lives on dopamine and adrenaline. He needs the chaos and crisis.
I think he is looking for the off ramp from Iran. First, he’s bored. And second, it is a fiasco of such magnitude that he cannot maintain his delusional facade of perfection. He needs to get it to stop and “save face” have a legitimate claim to victory. I really think that at the end of two weeks, he’ll find a reason not to re-engage militarily. We don’t have the armament to do so and there is no path to a real military victory.
The problem is Iran is a narcissistic wound. He needs to destroy Iran because of it. He was seriously considering using nukes on them so he could destroy them. He’s been talking about using nukes since the first term he’s itching to use them.
Huzzah!
Jack
The reason why Trump ceasefired, is because of how he’s losing, support of his, Republican pool of voters, and, with the mid-terms coming up this year, he is now, feeling the, sudden urgency of his chances, losing, and, he’s, trying to, save his own skin, as the people are now, becoming more and more upset as the war in Iran drags on, with the embargo of the Strait of, Hormuz, he knows, that if he does, pull back, he will, lose the mid-terms for the, Republicans, and, if that happens, he would have, ZERO control of the, U.S., and, a Supreme Court Justice he nominated voted to, invalidate his, imposing the, tariffs, so, all of these, afded up, it gives him a little more sense of, urgency.
Howdy Taurus!
That’s a great conventional analysis of Trump and his prosecution of the war crime in Iran. Like I said in the post, it misses the mark. The real key to understanding and predicting Trump is the narcissistic wound. He’s got to stop the hostilities with Iran at all costs. It’s an unmitigated disaster. But, he also has to destroy Iran… and perhaps Netanyahu, who talked him into the war. He needs a scapegoat. Netanyahu makes a good candidate, but it looks like NATO will be it because they didn’t help. Trump’s solution to the midterms is to cheat up to and including an insurrection. When did Trump ever win anything fair and square? He can’t do anything in good faith.
Huzzah!
Jack