A Simple Actuarial Analysis —

This article demonstrates in quantitative analysis what Ye Olde Blogge has been saying all along. It’s good policy if it hurts Black folks first and worst. Any white casualties are worth it. According to this actuarial analysis, the GQP may have decided that a few hundred thousand — literally — MAGA deaths is worth it if it undermines confidence in Biden and his handling of the #COVID19 pandemic.

Charles Gaba drives this point home by comparing the GQP response to the #COVID19 pandemic response to the response of the corporate actuaries in the movie, Class Action, a fictionalized account of the exploding Ford Pinto case, who decided it was cheaper to deal with the lawsuits resulting from the deaths of their defective product than it was to fix the defective product. This isn’t the decision making process of someone who has a Spock-like devotion to logic and rational thought or the wooden demeanor of the stereotypical accountant, this is the way a psychopath responds to real human suffering.

You cannot possibly have any sense of guilt, shame, or humility and preside over this size of death rate in your state or district. You can’t advocate for the policies that saw 18,000 Mississippi school children infected with #COVID19 in the first month of school and 15,000 quarantined last week, Governor Tate Reeves, and feel any amount of shame, guilt, or humility. You can’t outlaw mask wearing and vaccine mandates and order refrigerated morgue trucks to store the bodies of the dead from #COVID19 and feel guilt, shame, or humility, Governor Greg Abbott. You can’t go to court to overturn the mask mandates that your school districts have put into place in defiance of your bans, and still feel any guilt, shame, or humility, Governor DeSantis.

If you’re presiding over this level of suffering, it is not because you are pandering to the base, it is because you have no humanity and are a psychopath. These governors and other politicians know that their constituents are suffering and dying by the thousands, but they persist.

You can’t be a member of MAGA Nation and continue to take ivermectin, fight mask requirements, and refuse vaccines as your hospitals are overwhelmed by #COVID19 patients and ivermectin overdoses and not suffer from mass psychosis. You just can’t.

The evidence is just overwhelming. It takes a superhuman amount of cognitive dissonance to carry on in the face of this evidence. Just read the article. He walks you through the numbers so clearly and carefully. Hopefully, there are enough independent voters who will see this evidence and respond like rational feeling human beings do and vote for the Democrat.

Our only hope is that the delta variant and any that follow will kill so many MAGA voters that no amount of gerrymandering, voter suppression, and voter nullification can throw the 2022 elections to the GQP.

A Simple Actuarial Analysis.

by Charles Gaba on Wednesday 8 September 2021

As I’ve been arguing for well over a year now, the COVID-19 pandemic was utterly politicized by the Trump Administration right from the start…and the vaccination effort has similarly been completely politicized by the Republican Party since the moment President Biden took office as well.

Aside from the massive public health fallout, this fact has all sorts of poltiical [sic] implications as well, of course. Most of those involve pundits speculating about “the blame game” and so on; will voters in states like Florida and Texas blame their governors for doing everything possible to stymie reasonable pandemic safety measures such as mask mandates, or will they blame the Biden Administration for…I don’t know, not tying people to a chair and manually forcing the COVID vaccine into their arms?

For weeks now, however, people have been asking me an even more basic, crass question about the impact of political tribalism on the 2022 midterm election:

Continue reading on ASASignup.netA Simple Actuarial Analysis.

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6 replies »

  1. And, as for voters dying, children can’t vote. Some currently 17 year olds and a few 16 year olds born in September or October, will, or would have, turn 18 in time for the election, but younger than that don’t matter, though their parents might.

    Yes, only a bunch of psychopaths could let people suffer and die to win an election.

    Liked by 2 people

    • Howdy Bob!

      That’s the problem with only looking at the raw numbers, which Florida and Nebraska and large parts of Utah have stopped publishing, you can’t tell who was a likely voter and who wasn’t. Even then taking the total number of people and then taking the same percentage of that as voted in the county gives you a rough estimate. If we have a winter as bad as last year, which wasn’t as bad as this summer has been in the red states, you may very well see enough deaths to affect the elections in Florida, Mississippi, Idaho, South Dakota, Texas, Alabama, Georgia. It won’t out pace voter roll purges, though. To make up for the losses the GQP will have to work harder to disenfranchise likely Dem voters.

      The delta variant is bad. I don’t think people understand the ease with which it can be passed between us. The ease of contagion means that a lot more people will get sick and even though it is not more deadly, the same percentage of a lot more people are going to die which means a lot more people are going to die.

      The mu variant is vaccine resistant, it just isn’t any more contagious or only slightly more contagious than the original virus. It can’t compete with the delta variant because of its relative lack of contagion. In that sense, we’ve dodged a bullet.

      All of this is easily comprehensible even by the undereducated. Most of my relatives live in Appalachia. They are all undereducated. I’m still the only member of my extended family to have gotten a university degree, unless I have some great niece or nephew who has. Even my nieces haven’t done so. Still, most of my extended family is smart enough — they are smart capable people — to easily understand this information if it is presented to them and they would pay attention to it rather than immediately discount it.


      Liked by 2 people

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